Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (22339)	7/31/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Please don't take this personally, Jeff, but I always worry when I see someone saying, simultaneously, "In short, I feel it is the undisputed leader in a growth industry and will continue to be for many years to come." And "He [Morgan] understands his industry infinitely better than I do and if you believe in the future of AMAT {I presume that is why the majority of us are on this thread} then you have to take what he says very seriously." In other words, you are buying a company you don't understand in an industry you don't understand on the strength of the CEO's sales pitch and your gut feeling about its leadership and management. Now, I'm not saying AMAT isn't a good company. It will almost certainly lead the sector up out of its doldrums. I'm just saying that blind faith in any technology company can be very hazardous to your wallet. IBM was a "sure thing" in the 80s, too, and it took the stock 10 years to get back to its 1987 peak. Caveat investor. Katherine

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (22339)	7/31/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

jeffrey: it's nice to have a fresh new bull on the thread to lock horns with. The old bulls were getting tired. re: "You predict fundamentals for this sector could change as soon as early 1999." I predicted that the earliest that bookings could turn up was January 1999. Sales and profits won't turn up till 6 months later. Again, this is the earliest; could be much later. Did you read today's WSJ story wondering about a recession in 1999? re: " still reluctant to switch from prop to jet." You can review my past posts to confirm that I sold all my AMAT in May @ 37.5 (over half my portfolio), and put it all into INTC @ 69.5. My jet is using afterburners. Your jet is on the ground, out of gas, waiting for MU and the Koreans and INTC to refuel them. re: " you are demanding facts for future events ". Picking stocks is an attempt to predict the future. We will all fail in that attempt, to a greater or lesser degree. What I'm asking for is the historical and current facts, which demonstrate a pattern; a pattern which has a reasonable chance of continuing into the future. I was trying to be positive. I could have said, "don't post naked assertions, in a highly emotional tone, unsupported by any past pattern." Don't say, 'it's a New Age', and history is meaningless". If that's true, then I might as well just flip a coin. re: " I do not find Capt. Morgan to be prone to over optimism " Go back and read what he was saying (and IR and the analysts were repeating) 12 months ago. 1998 was supposed to be a blow-out year. In 1999, huge orders for the 300 mm transition were going to kick in. AMAT was spending more than anyone else to develop 300 mm and ramp up for the huge increase in orders. Now, the entire 300 mm effort has been shut down, the workers laid off or transferred; when the 300 mm transition happens (big orders in 2002? 2003?) it will probably happen at a smaller line width than originally planned, which means the tools will need to be re-designed. He made a huge bet, based on predictions that turned out to be far too optimistic. re: " I have noticed a positive change in his future outlook. So have others. " You're noticing it because you want to notice it. Wishful thinking, and selective hearing, play a large part in many people's investment decisions. What, exactly, do you find positive in what he's said? And how is this different (or any more likely to be true) than what he said 12 months or 6 months ago?