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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (22343)	7/31/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

"Picking stocks is an attempt to predict the future. We will all fail in that attempt, to a greater or lesser degree." "Picking stocks is an attempt to predict the future. We will all fail in that attempt, to a greater or lesser degree." "Picking stocks is an attempt to predict the future. We will all fail in that attempt, to a greater or lesser degree. Picking stocks is an attempt to predict the future. We will all fail in that attempt, to a greater or lesser degree. Picking stocks is an attempt to predict the future. We will all fail in that attempt, to a greater or lesser degree." Picking stocks is an attempt to predict the future. We will all fail in that attempt, to a greater or lesser degree. -------------------------------- Just thought that one deserved repeating.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (22343)	8/1/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

jacob, Re: it's nice to have a fresh new bull on the thread to lock horns with. The old bulls were getting tired. You are correct. We are tired of the same old "its going to 12" or "its got to hit a PSR of 1 before heading up." History does repeat, but rarely so predictably. When money starts to flood the market once again and SEA still looming over us, where do you think fund managers are going to look? For stocks hitting new 52 week highs on a daily basis, or those which have already bore the brunt of the SEA debacle? Although it's anyone's guess, my guess is that Smatrmoney will opt for the latter. BK

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (22343)	8/2/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 70976

Hi Jacob, while the AMAT jet is refueling in anticipation of the continuation of its flight tomorrow, I thought we could rejoin our discussion. Jacob:<<re: " I have noticed a positive change in his future outlook. So have others. " You're noticing it because you want to notice it. Wishful thinking, and selective hearing, play a large part in many people's investment decisions. What, exactly, do you find positive in what he's said? And how is this different (or any more likely to be true) than what he said 12 months or 6 months ago?>> Did you see his comments at the Bankamerica Robertson Stephens Semiconductor Conference. Predicted that the internet and DRAM stabilization will bring the semi industry back in 1999. This coming from a guy that has always said over the past year that his outlook is limited to only the present quarter. Now he's predicting 3 to 6 quarters in the future? Quite a change I'd say. In looking at your laundry list of your Bear indicators, I can only say they remind me of information semiconductor analysts come up with. You know the ones, they spend every day of their miserable lives pouring over similar findings and translating them in to future earnings estimates. Specialists in the semi industry. In fact, one of your Bear indicators was their recent downward revision of AMAT's future earnings. But, hey, wait a minute, weren't these the same guys that made the wrong call on the estimates in the first place causing the revisions? What makes you think they are right this time? About the best that can be said is that these guys made the revisions after AMAT warned. Nothing prescient there as far as I can see. What is AMAT, really? Did you read "The Gorilla Game?" I want my money in Gorilla Companies. Do you define AMAT as one? Oh, do I define AMAT as one? Well, Jacob, I have to go now and help load supplies for the AMAT jet so I just don't have time to say. But, hey, what is that animal they are loading in to the cargo hold of the plane? Why, it looks like a Gorilla. Best regards, Jeff