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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor Industry Sales Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (42)	8/1/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Respond to of 105

More Gloom and Doom from the Professional Side of Semiconductor Peanut Gallery: A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story updated at 5:15 p.m., EDT/2:15 p.m., PDT, 7/30/98 Chip sales could fall lower if economies weaken, says report SCOTTSDALE, Ariz -- Worldwide semiconductor revenues will drop 12% to $121 billion compared to $137 billion in 1997, but the decline could be as much as 15% if the world economies suffer additional setbacks in the second half of the year, according to a new forecast released today by ICE Corp. here. The research firm also said it sees no improvements in chip market conditions in 1999 and is predicting that semiconductor revenues will be flat next year. "Unit shipments also are expected to decline for the year by -2% for integrated circuits and -3% for discrete semiconductors," said Bill Groves, ICE's market research vice president. "This decline in unit is alarming because it counters the trends of previous industry recessions where unit volumes have increased due to lower average selling prices." The ICE analyst said most of the troubles are related to financial turmoil in Asia. "DRAM production shows only minor slowing in the face of steadily dropping prices," he said. "In fact, U.S. spot DRAM prices average about $1 per megabit. In addition to the DRAM glut, PC sales in Asia/Pacific have slowed dramatically in an area that consumes about 25% of the worlds PCs," Groves added. In North America, chip sales could slide by as much as 14% to $39.4 billion in 1998, according to the ICE mid-year forecast.

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (42)	8/2/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 105

Siemens minor DRAM fab capitulation, more details: exchange2000.com Claims the UK fab represented 20% of total Siemens DRAM capacity. That suggests Siemens total output of DRAMS on the order of 15000 wafers starts per week. They have four other fabs elsewhere in the world providing the remainder. Assuming equal loading that would be 3000 wafer starts at each per week. If true, this sounds like a small part of the total market. Siemens ranks 12th in total semiconductor output per another post somewhere. So I find these stats somewhat in opposition. Nevertheless any capitulation in this market war will be good for the remaining players. Siemens has taken issue with Korea, concerned with IMF funding possibly going to subsidize Korean DRAM manufacturers. A proposal for more US contributions to IMF is held up in US Congress. Another news article states that Korean government has recently levied large fines on Korean chaebol for filtering IMF funded money to subsidized businesses. Looks like the international DRAM war continues to heat up. Eventually a significant shakeout will occur, but more time, rhetoric and money need to pass. Note also from the cited post, that Siemens management claimed this years total revenues from worldwide semiconductor sales is forecast to be $130-$140 billion, which is well below $200b forecast from 3 years ago. And further claims Korean suppliers provide 40% of worldwide DRAM supply. Also note elsewhere in the posting, use of the word "bloodbath".