Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Church who wrote (12182)	7/31/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

I wouldn't use Amazon.com as a corrolary for the market in general. It does make some sense that the over-valued inet stocks should be taken down more than other sectors, but then maybe not. Many of the investors in Amazon.com and other inets have already made the tremendous leap of faith in projecting their investments years into the future. Maybe that isolates their thinking a bit from current events - enough to take some of the apparent volatility out. News within the inet group itself will have a more pronounced effect. The internut stocks are riding on the vapor of hopes that are 3-5 years before being finally proven one way or the other. As much as I or anyone else thinks they know what the outcome will be, the movement doesn't yet depend just on that to determine direction. The TA for the sector still is bearish but some of the pressure has been taken out of the bubble. With Yahoo! splitting during a slack period in ineterest in the sector could mean some further dillution and selling in the group. Right or wrong, many investors make conclusions about AMZN based on what YHOO does. I think that AMZN is likely to trend down another 10 points over the next few weeks but that we are unlikely to see a huge sell-off unless bad news hits. Is is more unlikely that the stock will move up unless there is really dramatic good news. If the company doesn't disclose much information prior to reporting this qtrs. results, it may try to rally toward the end of the quarter on renewed speculation. That is particularly true if the market revives. Over the next few weeks I expect some lightening up of short selling as well as the drop we have seen in speculation by the longs. That should be good for being able to predict where the stock is headed in the future. If we get a spurt up toward the end of the qtr., that should be another great shorting opportunity. Looking six to 12 months further out, I think that the effects of competition will start to become more apparent.. Also, the comparisons between the new sales numbers will start to look far less impressive than we have seen in the past. Both of these things should begin to blow convincing holes in the speculators arguments. Right now we have a few trends, logic, studies, and comparisons to competitors and industry valuations to argue against the speculation based on a polyana future. All thats fine but doesn't seem to disuade fanaticism for the mis-understood internet phenomena completely. I will probably hand onto my short position until we see south of 100 or the TA looks like its time to reverse.