To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13185 ) 7/31/1998 7:09:00 PM From: JMD Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
********mo money********* damn Maurice, you do make it a tad challenging to dodge Madeline, Billy C., nuclear weapons, addictive drugs, tariffs, free trade and god knows what else, while simultaneously disgorging the results of my dad's hard earned dough in procuring a sheepskin in the dismal science, but hey. .. what are Friday's for? It may be productive to consider the old question about Wall Street and Main Street, proxies for the 'monetary economy' and the 'real economy', to wit: where do they intersect, how do they relate? In general, neither can get too far out ahead of the other. Consider the '29 crash. In the hours, days, and weeks immediately following the event, one could ask: what changed? Real capital in the form of office buildings, factories, steel mills were still 'there', they hadn't vaporized. So why were we less wealthy in a Real sense? Well for a while we weren't, but then the inability of the monetary economy to pump capital in to the real economy choked it to death and the real economy crumbled. Soon Real Assets were cheap and Monetary Assets were dear: a 1930 $ could 'command' a fine meal with lots of Sherry and room for a tip. In 1998 that same $ won't buy you a Wall Street Journal. So in a broad sense, you are certainly correct that holders of dollars have been penalized [their wealth has deteriorated] relative to the holders of Real Assets. Stock certificates are funny little critters since they represent an ownership share in real assets while they are nevertheless INHERENTLY worthless scraps of fancy paper and considered a form of monetary wealth. [here's where those damn cubby-holes get real squishy] So long as the perception of their proxy ownership of real assets is deemed valuable, i.e., that the underlying assets are valuable, then they are indeed in the Real Asset cubby. But when everybody thinks they're richer than Midas cause they bought Yahoo for $20/share, a funny thing happens. They start buying 2nd,3rd,and 4th homes, Rolex watches, and Ericy cell phones. Which then promptly inflate in price, which then 'temporarily' makes them worth more, but then the market takes over. As in: Real Asset sellers try to take advantage of the hyped prices and offer the goods for sale which of course reverses the whole thing and then there's a rush for the exits. Real Assets have gotten ahead of Monetary Assets. So it seems to me that what we have is the constant interplay of Main Street and Wall Street, the economists' version of Yin and Yang, and it is a never ending dance. I wouldn't throw all your monetary NZ dollars at anything cause it's only a matter of time till dough comes back into its own. Never been any different, not even with the new paradigm, rake receivers, Anita[tm], and way cool technology. Granted all of the above seem to have pushed productivity to new levels which has staved off the Real Asset inflation effect which, along with the demographics of the Baby Boom generation throwing their dough at the stock market, has resulted in one helluva of long running bull market. But it ain't repealed gravity [or Yin and Yang]. Say Hello to Madeline for me. She seems to be one very bright gal; don't be too hard on her and wing kiwi fruit and stuff or she'll tell Alan and then we'll all be in deep doo-doo. SM