Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chenys who wrote (20034)	7/31/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

I guess it all depends on your timeframe. How long do you plan to hold it? There's no guarantee that COMS won't go higher here--but how much higher and during what timeframe? Have to look at the probabilities and different timeframes. Weekly trend is down and volatility is increasing to the dowside on the weekly chart. Long term downtrend is still in place. For month hold or longer--at least up to earnings announcement I think COMS is going lower. Shorter term like 2 weeks, I think COMS is going lower or will be back at these levels. For next 3 to 5 days, COMS could retest $27 1/2 (odds are against it but its definitely possible), but ultimately I think its headed for $20--but its going to take time to get there. One thing I've learned from looking at thousands of charts is the wider the bollinger bands are, the more predictable the price moves. The narrower the bands are and the lower the volatility is the more unpredictable the price moves. There is absolutely no way to 100% accurately predict breakout direction from pinched bollinger bands/periods of low volatiliy. These periods occur on intraday charts, daily, weekly and monthly charts. On an intrday chart, COMS is in that situation now, but it will resolve itself for a short term move of a dollar or two in the next couple days. There is no way to get/predict the direction right--but the probabilities are for a downward break based on the downward trend. The best way to play COMS isn't to guess, but rather to strategically place orders on either side of $25. A buy stop above and a sell short stop below.