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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (22932)	8/1/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Monty, Just posted the following on the TSO thread, hope you dont mind my re-posting it here. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> As previously indicated it had surprised me that Friday reversed so hard to the downside, having absolutely no follow-thru for Thursday's nice upswing. Well, I guess the question is where do we go from here and how will it occur. Obviously, I am very negative to the market now so I strongly feel we are heading down and very possibly down alot, and it could happen very fast. The technicals are so oversold we should at least get some sort of bounce early next week, MON/TUE, at least intraday. Here are the next resistance lines, and all of them are strong: 9025-9050 *** feel this will hold if market gets that high 9100 9220 As for timing, I had previously indicated the the top of the short-term upswing would arrive in the 4 day period of July 30-Aug 2(THUR-TUE). I will still stick to this time frame and that the short-term top would be close to THUR & FRI's high of 9041. Here's an interesting tidbit. For the last 6 trading days the high for the DOW, each day was within 43 points (starting with 7/24: 8998/9028/9019/9001/9041/9030). The downswing should start by by mid week (WED/THUR-could be as early as TUES) and should last for for 5-8 trading days. There are 2 important support lines, the first at 8750 and the real important one at 8570. At this point I feel that 8750 should be easily broken, then the big test at 8570. So, my target is the 8600 range for this 5-8 day forthcoming downswing. If and when we hit the 8600 range we should see some sort of bounce to the upside, possibly back to the 8900-9050 range. Then another retest of 8570. If 8570 does not hold the 2nd time around well that would be enough confirmation for me that we could see the 7000's(strong support at 7700-7800). For a little longer outlook I see most of AUG being down with an upsing at the end of AUG into the first week of SEPT and then the big down-movement. This would be the timing for the highest probability of the DOW getting below 8000. 1) 8600 RANGE BY 3RD WEEK OF AUGUST 2) UPSWING AT END OF AUGUST INTO 1ST WEEK OF SEPT TO 8900-9050 3) BIG DOWNSWING BELOW 8000 TO START 2ND WEEK/MID SEPT 4) RANGE TRADING FOR REST OF SEPT/OCT/NOV (500-700 POINT RANGE) 5) WONT SEE 10000 THIS YEAR Of course we need confirmation of resistance lines holding and support lines breaking and market internals remaining poor. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Seeya

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (22932)	8/1/1998 10:45:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Monty; I'm not real strong on that history repeats itself phrase, I think it's over worked. It can always be true to some extent, but if anything is true about it, then most disasters take us by surprise would be the most true. On the other side, things do happen that don't have any real history to base them on, and these things can mess up any kind of time line. We went into future shock in the mid 80s and I doubt many people have dealt with tath. There are still the hangers on that will tell you there is nothing new under the sun, but believe me they must be asleep. I think the more we stretch out time looking back at patterns the more we can read in all sorts of stuff that can be both good or bad. To me TA loses it's effectiveness as it goes back in time. While I wont argue with what I don't understand, ( wave patterns ) as I do feel they may be valid, but only if one does not try to find some holy grail that always repeats itself year after year, over x amount of time as I'm sure they ( wave patterns ) also evolve, and I don't think I need to be an expert to know that. How many mutual funds to stock issues did we have in 1990, to what we have now ? I have no idea but I bet that ratio has changed very dramatically. The individual investor ( most of them ) does not actually act in any kind of concert with the market swings we see today. I think we have more of a war ( competition )among funds, than stocks, and this is putting a whole new face on the stock market. ------------------- Jim

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (22932)	8/31/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Monty; That was a good post, and now we have momentum and Mo Mo selling . Jim

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (22932)	11/16/1998 6:51:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Monty: And another example of technical analysis that actually worked. Dell formed a flag from mid-July to mid-August that called for about an 11 point up-move which was fulfilled at the end of August. Then it began a broadening top. The first top near the end of August, the first bottom at the very end of August, the second higher top at the end of September, the second lower bottom in the first third of October, and the third top in early November. Such a formation should result in a swift decline--which it did. However, there may be a final move toward 70, which would provide an opportunity to short--especially if the overall market weakens at that time. Maybe it will work again. 207.95.154.130