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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gnuman who wrote (61732)	8/3/1998 4:21:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Gene - Re: "I'd be interested in your cost estimates for Celeron-A. That's the kind of data that can help figure out the margins now and in the future" The Celeron A, at 165 sq. mm. (my estimate), should cost about $35 - $40 for silicon only. Add $15 for packaging, assembly and test and the costs will be about $50 total - today. The packaging costs will drop as the 370 pin PPGA package ramps up next year. Now, Intel will eventually move the Celeron - A to a 0.18 micron process - probably by using the Coppermine as a basis. I would guess that the resultant die size should drop to 105 sq. mm., dropping the silicon cost to about $25 or $30 - allowing for a $500 increase in Silicon Wafer costs due to the 0.18 micron process. I may be too high on this, but it is best to be conservative. With a $25 die cost, $10 in PPGA packaging, Intel will have a $35 overall cost. Thus, Intel will make excellent money, even at $100 for 366 MHz Celeron-As, as they improve the performance and REDUCE COSTS simultaneously. This is the road that Intel has traveled so successfully, Gene. Improve Yields. Introduce New Process Technology. Increase performance. Reduce Die size. Increase yields Reduce costs even more. Paul

To: gnuman who wrote (61732)	8/3/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Gene, Hello? >>>That's the kind of data that can help figure out the margins now and in the future. And if you have any data as to the success of these chip's that would also be helpful.>>> The only people that has this information are working for Intel. They are in touch with their suppliers and know how much they are paying for their supplies. They know their fixed overhead costs. They know how much they are selling their products for. They are working with their customers to find out what the demand is so they can help their customers with their inventory. They know as much about this business as anyone. They are not going to lie to you. It does not make any sense, businesswise, for them to lie to you. Yet, you are hoping, someone like a Kurlak can find some data somewhere that would make liars out of Intel Management. You will accept any negative information, whatever its source, or perception of negative information from Kurlak and or other sources (like some very small hedge fund operators posting on this thread)as gospel. And you are very comfortable with this kind of information. Information that you do not know where it comes from. Information that may be just someone's imagination. Or, information that is just made up to drive the stock down. Go figure. Mary

To: gnuman who wrote (61732)	8/3/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Gene - Re: "Your positive spin on low-ball pricing has always been that it hurt's AMD. Anything that hurt's AMD is positive to you, regardless of what it means to Intel." And I have been dead-right on. AMD made 9 cents/share in Q1 97 AMD made 7 cents/share in Q297 as Intel cut prices. AMD lost 22 cents/share in Q3 97 as Intel further cut prices AMD lost 9 cents/share in Q497 as Intel further cut prices AMD lost 39 cents/share in Q198 as Intel continued to cut prices. AMD lost 45 cents/share in Q298 as Intel further cut prices As AMD loses more money, they are forced to abandon their own R & D and go "barter" for help - witness the Motorola deal. Intel and AMD are locked in a battle - Intel has shown the ability to remain profitable, reduce costs, improve performance, introduce new technology, develop new products and product lines, and compete in such a way that their competition is financially damaged. Paul