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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (61735)	8/3/1998 4:48:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Mary - More on your buddy Kurlak. Surprisingly, Intel closed higher after Kurlak issued his second "NEGATIVE" prediction in the last 2 or 3 days. Intel just doesn't seem to "nosedive" anymore after Kurlak hurls his wisdom at the investor community. Maybe he'll try again tomorrow. Paul {======================================} cbs.marketwatch.com Chip stocks: buy or bail? By Binti Harvey, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 4:39 PM ET Aug 3, 1998 Also see NewsWatch NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A wave of optimism about the chip industry subsided Monday as semiconductor shares fell and Merrill Lynch sounded a note of caution to investors. However, some analysts are saying now is the time to buy in to the depressed industry. Semiconductor stocks were mostly lower Monday after influential chip analyst Thomas Kurlak of Merrill Lynch said industry fundamentals for the group remain weak. Shares had rallied in the past few sessions, boosted by upbeat presentations at a chip conference and indications of improvement in PC industry conditions. Kurlak, however, hasn't found fundamental support for the recent optimism. "Input from semiconductor makers, distributors and end uses continues to be negative," Kurlak said. He maintains that even if PC inventories come down to manageable levels, that still won't address overcapacity in the chip industry. "Developments in the PC distribution channel are being overemphasized. A drawdown of PC inventory is not expected to fix the fundamental overcapacity problem the semiconductor industry continues to struggle with," Kurlak added. Not all analysts share Kurlak's dim view. Jonathan Joseph, chip analyst for NationsBanc Montgomery Securities, remains positive on the group although he admits that certain pockets of the industry, like the memory business, still face severe overcapacity conditions. Joseph said delayed and reduced plans for capacity expansion, coupled with a resurgence of demand have positioned the group for an upturn. "Demand has firmed up in the U.S. and Europe primarily, but also in China," Joseph said. Joseph recommends investing in the large-cap, high-quality names in the sector such as Intel (INTC) and Texas Instruments (TXN). He also remains bullish on companies that make chips for networking and communications applications such as PMC-Sierra (PMCS) and Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC).

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (61735)	8/3/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Mary re;<The only people that has this information are working for Intel......They are not going to lie to you. It does not make any sense, businesswise, for them to lie to you.> Kind of a mixed up message, Mary. BTW, Paul did give me the chip data, and I thank him for that. I doubt if Intel is going to provide it. Most of it is proprietary, so the investor has to figure out how to get the info for himself. And as for them not lying, I agree. But I also don't think they are providing meaningful long term guidance. If they were, would 38 analysts have the forecasts so consistently screwed up? Eight months ago when the analyst consensus was $4.69 for `98 did you believe it? Or did you get the info from Intel? And what was the info Intel gave for "98? And it seem's to me the only input Intel has given for the second half is that it will be better. Do you know how much better? And the consensus for `98 has dropped to around $3.00. So is 2nd half much better then 1st half? And if you think they're full of it, then I guess we can't rely on the consensus of 38 analysts for forecasts. Which was my whole point. ;-) And if you have any meaningful data, please share it.