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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William T. Katz who wrote (5973)	8/3/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Ok, last post for the day. William, you said: Why should the card makers announce Banshee cards that won't be shipping for at least a month? So their most-excellent V2 boards take a hit in sales? V2 and Banshee are in totally different markets. I'd buy a VB if I'm buying a new computer or need very fast 2D graphics. If I already have a graphics card (and I'm happy with its 2D performance) then I'd just buy a V2. What would I gain by buying a VB instead? If anything, you should wonder given the inherent competition between V2 and TNT (given their similar specs) why would the card maker pre-announce that? TNT is much more likely to steal sales from V2 than Banshee is. Could it be that all that false advertising behind TNT has meant that there is now more pent up demand for it than for Banshee? Credibility means little when people have very short term memories (just look at your nearest elected official for proof). I don't consider Intel a threat. Semiconductor industry constantly cycles between complex and integrated chip designs and simple and specialized ones. It will never settle in one end or the other. There was an article on CREAF today dailynews.yahoo.com re. sound cards which is a mirror image of what some have said about 3D chips (and will continue to say). I'm still looking for speculations (it is only speculation) as to why a card maker may prefer someone over 3Dfx. Sun Tzu

To: William T. Katz who wrote (5973)	8/3/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: Greg S.	Respond to of 16960

Also, regarding the stock price, Intel has recently released their plans to integrate 3D onto the logic support chips (not the CPU). This would also account for some of the decline in price as worried investors sell based on the Intel juggernaut. However, a number of things are just wrong with the Intel strategy including (1) who wants to be locked into a substandard graphics system and (2) DOJ antitrust. "Who wants to be locked into a substandard graphics system?" I think a key thing to remember is that while nobody specifically asks for a steaming plate of silicon feces such as the i740, they'll take it if that's what the OEM is dishing out. a) Intel has OEM clout, BIG TIME. They have demonstrated for years upon years that they can make chips in a cost effective manner and move them on the market in droves. OEMs will eat whatever Intel gives them, and for good reason - it sells. b) Intel has an angle with the i740: the efficiency of integration. If they slap a second-generation i740 on every Celeron motherboard, they won't be chastised for shipping substandard products. They will be lauded for saving the customer $99 on a graphics chip by integrating it in the motherboard. For the average productivity user who doesn't need anything hard-core, the i740 is probably the most cost-effective solution. And businesses like cost-effectiveness. c) The i740 -DOES- have technical merit (Intel says it will be improved before it is placed in a chipset). Yes, it's not the best graphics chip around by a longshot. But think about this: SGI is floundering because the bottom dropped out of their market. What once required $100,000 workstations can now be done with a $3,000 PC. Again with the cost-effectiveness bit: anyone with an eye on the budget (and that means most businesses) won't buy what they don't need. And while the high-end 3D market is surely growing, do you think it's the biggest piece of the pie? d) I don't see DOJ being much of an issue. There are interesting parallels between integrating a graphics chip on a motherboard and integrating a browser into an operating system. But if Intel plays its cards right it shouldn't have any problem in this arena. Of course, the way the Microsoft case is handled will set a precedent, so who knows? I'm saying all this to illustrate that Intel sits in a very good position to take away the low-end share of the market, but little else. I don't think there is anything that 3Dfx can do to combat this. I think it's to our benefit to find out just how large that market is - my statements are moot if the lower end market is tiny, but very, very relevant if it is big. I'd -really- like it if someone could dig up some stats on the proportion of systems sold for business and entertainment use, and the price breakdowns. If nobody steps up I may have to <gasp> do some legwork myself! :) (I've been unsuccessful thus far, I haven't found the right place to look). -G