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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill who wrote (17568)8/3/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Patrick Sharkey  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29386
 
Bill, with respect to your well-placed questions about the technology, Craig has been to the Company, seen the technology and believes it to be top notch, based upon what he has seen, not what he has heard. Your observations are well-placed, but far earlier in the chronology Craig was kind enought to share with us his first-hand observations. While we are all making our own investment decisions on Ancor, I found Craig's observations to be helpful, and consistent with a slowly growing market for fibre channel, i.e., the absence of sales does not necessarily indicate that the technology is poor. More to the point, the prime competitor, Brocade, has had fewer announcements than expected, including no announcement with SUN.

REgards, Pat



To: Bill who wrote (17568)8/4/1998 7:30:00 AM
From: Craig Stevenson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
 
Bill,

<<don't you think it's time to step back and re-evaluate the fundamental tenets of the company? When revenue goes to near zero, every aspect of the operation needs to be examined.>>

If you have followed my posts for the last couple of years, you will find more and more caution in them as Ancor has continued to fail to deliver on the promises made to investors. However, much of the excitement surrounding Ancor over the last year and a half or so comes from the switching segment of the Fibre Channel SAN market, which has yet to materialize. That's what I am waiting for. Granted, the lack of any other significant revenue reduces the company's value in the short term, but that seems to be reflected in the stock price. My position has also been drastically reduced, compared to what it once was, at least until I see some signs of life.

If I didn't think the product was good, I would agree with you. However, I have seen the MKII up close, and I think Ancor knows how to design Fibre Channel switches. I think their problems have had more to do with being slow to implement features that customers wanted and/or needed, than with any inherent problems with the MKII. Hopefully, last quarter's numbers will convince them that they can no longer afford to stay behind the curve.

To me, it has become a valuation issue. What is the technology worth? I think it is worth more than the current market cap. The way I figure it, a SINGLE OEM contract could be worth more than Ancor's current market cap. That seems too low to me, even if there is some additional dilution because of another financing deal.

Obviously, I don't have all the answers to the ANCR question. I've been consistently wrong about the stock price, and the timetable for the rollout of Fibre Channel switches. I'm waiting for the OEM deals to start to be announced in earnest. If Brocade, McData, or Vixel/Arcxel get them all, then I think it will be time to start worrying in earnest.

Craig