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To: Paul Shread who wrote (698)8/4/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Steve Antonelli  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1999
 
You are also correct, but political instability will certainly set the market back. An impeachment / resignation will keep the market from rising ..... End of October, and things will start to rebound ....



To: Paul Shread who wrote (698)8/4/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: mauser96  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1999
 
According to Martin Zweig in his book "Winning on WAll StreeT' major bear markets are associated with one or more of the following:
1) extreme deflation 2) very high P/E 3) inverted yield curve
Several bear markets were associated only with very high P/E , ie 1939-1942,1946-1949,1966.and 1987.
Mr. Zweig is an expert on this, and I regard his book as the authority on this type of statistic.
Today we probably have a high enough market P/E to launch a bear market, though personally I think this bull is so strong it will probably take more than a high P/E , which is in the process of being corrected now. The small caps have fallen 20% or so already.