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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom M who wrote (23194)	8/4/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: set	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

> At what point do you guys think margin calls will > kick in for another down leg? tomorrow, after AOL reports.

To: Tom M who wrote (23194)	8/4/1998 1:47:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 94695

Tom, IF today is Oct 27, later today and at the open. However, that would imply that tomorrow morning will be the bottom. I don't think so. BTW, PTB, I have the June 16 low around 8570 or so and today's low (so far) at 8562. Perhaps you are thinking "theoretical low", which I hesitate to even bring up for fear of endless rehashing of the differences. Oh well. Now I've done it.<g> Anyway, the June lows do look like a reasonable place to find support, but only temporarily, IMO. BWDIK? Bob

To: Tom M who wrote (23194)	8/4/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Tom; Contrary to a lot of what I've heard, I do not believe mutual funds have gone very deep on margins at all, nor do I buy that low cash level tune that CNBC keeps whistling. I think they have some sorry sources in that department, and ought to check it out form themselves before they just pump that fodder out like it's fact. I have numerous funds I directly check , and what they are saying don't add up. While I don't have the resources to tabulate the totals, the ones I do check have more cash now than since I can remember. Who ever is running the totals is likely getting out of date data commingled into their program. Garbage in Garbage out. Just be aware that the FACTS , most news media put out are not always correct, and most of them have good writing skills, but are sorry as hell when it comes to checking things out. Hell Joe has to take get the info feed to him like baby food, he don't even know how to click the bottom on his mouse...he calls for a screen and some techy in the background shoots it to him. Mark with all his talk, in the mourning about the fair value of the futures , does not know how to calculate the fair value, it's fed to him, ( I think by Prudential ).. I don't think they mislead us deliberately , what I'm saying is that the pundits do not have the skills to check out half of what they tout as facts. Maybe they have cash levels , and margins all mixed up and backwards, as I believe margins are at their lowest level in years, If you don't count the clowns using their credit cards to buy stocks. <G> Jim

To: Tom M who wrote (23194)	8/4/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Tom... fantastic response to your post. Great work... As I told Jim, I am working on my charts now... between posts. Here are a number of things I have found which MAY be important: - the utilities (electric) are almost at a trend line that started in February of this year. - And now we can have a utility BUY signal starting Monday of next week... hardly sooner. - VGY is within 1-2 percent of making a double bottom with the January low. NOTE: I still believe VGY has signalled a bear market! - VIX FINALLY shows fear coming back in the markets! - Using GE as a surrogate for the market, that stock will probably touch what I call an "internal" trendline tomorrow. If THAT doesn't holdd, we are looking at another 10% down or another 800 points on the DOW. - BRKA looks like a turnaround. - NAZ+NYSE is about to bottom within 1-2% with the June 14th low. - Zwieg Breadth Thrust generated a super-buy signal. Okay... putting this all together, I would say we will scare the bejabers off everyone tomorrow with a 1-2% further drop during the day and then that will be the bottom. We probably will muck around for a week or so retesting that bottom and THEN take off, just when my calls will expire worthless. The other scenario is that we drop even further and may end with as much as a 500-1,000 point sell-off this week. BWDIK? Bill