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To: Snowshoe who wrote (27023)	8/4/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael Metz is calling the bottom in oil "or else" cnnfn.com Paulo

To: Snowshoe who wrote (27023)	8/4/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Respond to of 95453

Greg, Yeah, it was 0.07 away , just another down tick on any of the index's stocks. Last Wednesday, I mentioned that the major market indeces were on the brink of collapse and low and behold, it's happening. The Dow closed below its 200day MA and the NYSE tick hit a 52 week low today (-1733)...WOW! and what is worse is that there wasn't that type of capitulative selling that would signal a reverse (the arms index got only as high as +/- 2.00) So, it looks as though tomorrow may be horrendous for the Dow and nasdaq. Oil, on the other hand, will depend on API's numbers. Who's got em. Paulo

To: Snowshoe who wrote (27023)	8/4/1998 7:40:00 PM
From: Richard D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Well Greg, I know you're lickin' your chops right about now, but hopefully we're at that point in the bungie jump where we touch the river with our hand before being pulled skyward again. It is possible for the OSX to rally in spite of the API numbers and oil. Semi's have often rallied though DRAM book-to-bill ratios looked bleak. If the OSX does rally on bad API numbers, we may have a bottom in the sector. Cash will be available from liquidation of other sectors. The Iraq problem seems to have gone OPEC's way today. Perhaps that will negate the API numbers. I certainly think the API numbers aren't really news, while the Iraq reversal is in a way (since many thought they were going to open the spigots.) I agree with those saying Mr G has got it wrong. The danger of recession seems higher than inflation. As I have said before, this will require world wide stimulative money policy. There seems little to dispute this, employment numbers not withstanding. Regards, Richard