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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (61783)8/4/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: gnuman  Respond to of 186894
 
Mary, re: <All you can do is get as much information as possible and then make a guess. >
Exactly. That's what I've been trying to do. So what's your problem? ;-)



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (61783)8/4/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Mary, re; Your predictions.
I see you forecast a 20% decline in earnings year/year, but only a 3% decline in revenues. Are you assuming a significant increase in unit volume at lower ASP's?
What is your estimate of unit volume for 1999? For the PC side I'm estimating 88M CPU's at an ASP of $210, for revenues of $18.5M for that part of the business. (80% share of 110M units). This assumes that AMD and Cyrix/NSM et al won't grow their share a lot next year.
Based on that I have trouble predicting normal historical growth.
I don't see 1999 revenues significantly above 1997, and I see earnings below 1997.
The key is probably the server side. Any idea of Intel's share of the server market?
Fire away! ;-)