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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (6376)	8/4/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Diamond Jim	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

RE: "Somehow I don't think we will be hearing from Bob Brinker on this thread. I am now starting to wonder if BB has made a mistake in calling for a bear market." +++++++++ He did NOT call for a bear market. I believe you mean, in not calling for a bear market. Have you checked your mailbox today ? Maybe you didn't get your overnight delivery from Bob and everyone else did. jim

To: stock bull who wrote (6376)	8/5/1998 2:09:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Don't look for Bob Brinker to post on this thread. I reckon it's not in the job description. If he was to post today, he'd say what he said on Sunday: according to the model this is a buying opportunity; new highs sometime this summer or early Fall; and no possibility of a bear until Q4 or later. You wrote that it would only be a "meaningful warning" if he warns in time for one to sell out with 8% drop from the all time highs. With respect, I'd like to offer some comments. First, Bob said clearly a little while back that bear markets frequently begin with a normal correction. If you think on this a little, he is saying that his timing model cannot always tell the difference between a correction and a bear. Hence the model may call a pull back a "correction" and later 'correct' that call to a "bear." In this senario, I'd think a realistic drop from highs would be 10% or more, maybe even 15%. Second, he does not have a crystal ball. He only has a timing model and has said that, while he has confidence in it's ability, it is only a model. The map is not the territory, hence it is only assumed (with more or less confidence) that it will call the next bear. I'd like to give him a lot of credit for the supurb accuracy his model has shown so far. I remember distinctly last winter--markets were down and the talking heads were growling bear bear bear. Bob said look to mid-January for the beginning of a move upward. And what? His model has been like that almost all along. So far, scores people who have followed his advice have made oodles and oodles of percentage gain whist the followers of bad news bears have been out of the market waiting .... For someone who has made several hundred percent on their original stake, dropping 10 to 15 percent getting out is not a real big deal, in context. Ciao, David Todtman