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To: exhon2004 who wrote (61807)	8/4/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: carl a. mehr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

greg, Re:<<On balance, I think the market is overreacting and I will put more money in sooner rather than later. >> You are so modest greg. You didn't quite finish so allow me: ...and more rather than less. Regards, humble carl

To: exhon2004 who wrote (61807)	8/4/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Greg, Very good list. Rarely does a bear market start with low inflation and low rates. They will win this battle. Jim

To: exhon2004 who wrote (61807)	8/5/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

I'll continue the negatives. You began with: Let's list the positives: - Long bond rate down to 5.63 with no reason to expect an increase. - Inflation is benign. - Federal budget looking at a 60+ Billion dollar surplus. - 34 of 50 States in surplus. - Continued corporate buyouts indicating corporations still see buys. - U.S. productivity highest in the world. - Corporations are flush with cash. - Balance sheets of major corporations in great shape. - Reduced costs for companies that source product in Asia. - U.S. Technological leadership. I'll start the negatives: - Asian currency devaluations, (especially Japan). - Slowing corporate earnings growth. - Declining confidence in U.S. political leadership. (Personally I'd score this in the plus column, but it's a short term negative for the market as it creates uncertainty.) (Here's mine, a repost from AMAT thread on July 30) Indicators: 1. market PE off the top end of the scale 2. P/S, P/B: same thing 3. dividend yield at historic lows 4. Dow Theory 5. advance:decline at 1:2 on days the market advances 6. market breadth narrowing to almost nothing. Nifty 50. 7. profit growth grinding to a halt. 8. overcapacity in numerous manufacturing sectors (not just semis). 9. The second largest economy in the world entering recession. 10. They just elected a leader with a reputation for doing nothing. 11. the Fed says (clearly and repeatedly) that the next move will be to tighten. They will do this pre-emptively, because they're much more worried about inflation than the slowing economy (or deflation). 12. The Fed chairman also says banks are lending money that won't be repaid, and investors are buying stocks that won't go up. 13. foreigners are buying U.S. equities. They usually are the last group to enter the market, at the top. 14. investors are buying without regard to the fundamentals. 15. Momentum investing is the dominant strategy. 16. The wisest investor of all (Buffet) is buying silver and bonds, and using his own overpriced stock to buy hard assets. My strategy is to find shorts to hedge all my long-term long positions. Cash would be another good alternative. I will only take new long positions on quality stocks whose PE is below their past and expected future EPS growth rate. That means, given current conditions, I can't take any new long positions.