To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (49269 ) 8/5/1998 1:11:00 AM From: Dwight E. Karlsen Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
Last night it was down then the market opened way up. Perhaps during the last couple of weeks the prescient traders are the earlier ones, whereas the eternal bulls are the driving it up for a strong opening, only to have the regular "real" market take it back down. I usually only follow the GLOBEX in the 1:00AM-3:00AM EST time frame (10PM to midnight Pacific). I've noticed that the GLOBEX in these hours the last several selloff days pointed in the right direction for the following days action. Therefore I've been surprised to hear (I reconnect with the market after the trading day has concluded hours previous) that "GLOBEX was up pre-market open" or similar comments. I would not, however, begin to place trades based on what GLOBEX is doing at such and such hour. Nope. My gut calls my trades, period, whether I be right or wrong. GLOBEX does help shape my gut though. Last night for instance, GLOBEX was deteriorating steadily until I turned my weary head to rest. I was not feeling bullish, and had no trouble whatsoever in deciding to keep my trading account safely in cash. Now for "the rest of the story". I did buy a modest amount of a tech stock last Thursday, one which I have liked very much for a long time, but have not trusted the levels it was trading at. HYSW got hit pretty good today, but stock is stock and there's no premium burn, and I'm quite happy to hold the stock until "the story" as I see it for this company unfolds. I won't know whether the stock will turn out to be a loser or a winner until probably next spring, when the fundamentals will be measured. I'm also very modestly in the oil patch, of all things. RDC (Rowan Cos.) at $14 and change. Sure it's a point lower since I bought in last Thursday, but I noticed people still driving gas guzzlers, and La Nina (little sister) says this Winter following El Nino will be colder than normal. So far this year the oils have been the single doggiest investment one could own. But this means they are cheap cheap cheap, so if one wants to sock away an investment in a company involved in a critical and necessary component of the industrialized world, then IMO oil stocks are now at "no brainer" levels at which to simply buy them and forget about them. I also had these same thoughts last Feb-March, but I decided that prudence and patience are more than pretty names for women when it comes to investing in cyclical commodities. So I've steered well clear of the oil patch after bailing for a small profit this last April. Yes, I missed the runup into May, but I did not get sucked in. I stayed away, and now I have money to buy them at "bargain basement" levels. A lot of these oil stocks are not far from book value. Buy'em and forget'em levels. Sorry this is so long, but the thread is mostly quiet at night, so hopefully nobody is overly annoyed. DK