*AV*--Before answering the question, I want everyone to know why I have been off this thread for the past few days. I needed a break in the action and also wanted to try some other pastures. I have been participating on an mIRC channel for the past week or so and contributing daily commentaries for the purposes of doing some positional trading in a way that was close to the aggressive daytrading some people do.
Cindy is a witness to this. I have done real well by clipping 1-3 points on about 4-6 stocks both long and short with a good healthy 2 pt average. Anyway, I just wanted everyone to know this since it was unfair of me not to mention it previously.
The stocks inquestion were KLAC, VECO, AMAT, NVLS, LRCX, MIPS, and the last escapes me for the moment. There are some nice trading ranges that allow some nice plays. Right now, I have covered a LRCX short for 1.25 today alone but am 1/16 to the negative on an AMAT short.
Everyone should recognize that I have always been interested in improving my entire investment capabilities (Index options, Options, Shorts, etc.) I needed to go somewhere else, a daytrading thread to watch and learn and to participate.
It actually seems to be working well and the secret was a collaboration of myself and a daytrader. He gets an "TELESCAN" list download of information of all the stocks, what ever that is. He then puts the data through his own mathematical algorithms to come up with a list of the 50 best prospects based on volume, movement, and a few more criteria. I have been getting this list and have culled it down to close to 12 stocks each day. this process has been easy since the stocks are all stocks in my universe and most are already on rader for me. The output stocks are just an ondication of those that are "in play" with no real feeling for which way they are going to go. I personally look at all the info, data, etc. I can get my hands on and then determine which way to go (long or Short) on the best of the group I have gleaned. Interestingly enough, The worst case so far (please do not let this jinx me) was having to hold a position for 3 days and to double down on a VECO short when it went from 29 to 29.75 right after I shorted the first block. Bottom line, the VECO short turned out to be the most profitable trade of the last few weeks.
With that said, I will be sharing some of this stuff with the community as soon as I can put it in a fashion that does not look hokey and from which the community could first watch and see how well it does on paper. Then you can judge for yourselves whether it is worth your while.
Finally, in order to fine tune this for even greater success, I am going to need the help of some experts that are willing to do some research (cutting and pasting news releases, keeping current on Internet chatter, etc.) in order to put a comprehensive game plan together for the day and for future reference. The experts reside here on Stock Swap. Make no mistake about it, this community has developed the type of expertise to make this a very profitable situation for all of us. You are also the best bunch of Semiconductor Technology Slueths on the Internet. I and others have trained you well. I cannopt do it all by myself since I am about to burn out from 18 hour days doing most of this on my own and still mssing vital stuff.
Anyway, I never ever wanted to lead any sheep to slaughter and experimented on my own to establish a 2-3 week track record with my own funds at risk. It is still at a very early point since 3 weeks means nothing in the life of this market. However, I must admit that even with a 700 point DOW reversal, the only real stupid investment I have is DY. DY is up 3X from what I paid for it 17.5 months ago. However, it is down $7 from its recent high because I refused to sell at a stop so close to the 18 months long term cpaital gains rate. Watch now, the Gov't will pass the 12 month rule retro to Jan of this year and I will have been stupid not to take the money and run.
Final comment before answering your question:
HOW ABOUT THAT MIPS BOYS AND GIRLS<GGGG>. I was even thinking I was stupid to have sold off those shares as it was rising to 19+ but look at it now. I even made money by shorting at 19 and have yet to cover the short<GGG>
OKAY-answer to NVLS. I know Michael Burke and if he is the same person I think he is, he must have gotten a bad batch of drugs. NVLS is not a commodity supplier in my opinion. Granted, NVLS does not have as diverse a product portfolio as AMAT. NVLS is a direct competitor in the Thin Film Deposition sector of the IC industry (Photo, Etch, Thin Films, Diffusion, Implant). AMAT is on a mission to be able to sell EVERYTHING a fab needs for a turn key solution. It is the only company trying to do that. Everyone else has carved out their area of emphasis. I cannot respond any differently until he explains why he believes NVLS is a commodity supplier.
Using his rationale, CYMI is a commodity supplier since it only producing DUV sources for litho steppers. For that matter, that would imply ASMLF, Canon, UTEK, and Nikon as commodity suppliers. Hell, SVGI would be a poor excuse for a commodity supplier since AMAT provides alternative to most of their products and the litho tool guys mentioned above make the Micrascan stepper a commodity.
To me, a commodity supllier is DPMI, MASK, and PLAB for reticles and masks or WFR, Wacker and SEH(name not symbol) for raw silicon wafers.
Even ATMI is a commodity supplier relative to its chemicals, formulations, and delivery hardware. However, very few people can hold a candle to some of the products they supply to the industry that others cannot.
Yep, Andrew the Verbose is back. Miss me<GGG>
Andrew |
