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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15148)8/7/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17305
 
Andrew: RE: "However, I must admit that even with a 700 point DOW reversal, the only real stupid investment I have is DY. DY is up 3X from what I paid for it 17.5 months ago. However, it is down $7
from its recent high because I refused to sell at a stop so close to the 18 months long term cpaital gains rate. Watch now, the Gov't will pass the 12 month rule retro to Jan of this year and I will have been stupid not to take the money and run."

Hate to break the news to you, but this capital gains tax thing is a done deal retroactive to January 1, 1998 <g>:

dtonline.com

I too have huge gains in DY and have traded it as well this year. But after the institutions took notice this year, they have taken the stock up to fully valued levels at 35 where it trades at 21.5x forward FY 1999 estimates and 27.34x trailing. It sells at record P/B (8.9x) and P/S (1.8x) at that level. Plus the stock has had a parabolic rise built into it brought to you by the momentum boys and these guys can leave a stock as quickly as they enter. They like the fact that DY is handling the street well -- keep earnings expectations down and then exceed them. I hope to be selling my position into strength for these reasons although I must say I like that company for the long term.

But when I go down the capitalization scale and find ALNK selling for 1.2x book and .53x sales at about $10 and has a trailing P/E of 10, I have got to make the move from DY to ALNK. ALNK's business is more erratic with short term contracts and it has had some difficulties with weather and market conditions. But it is a great value here. Management owns about 50%. The company is looking to make an accretive acquisition this FY. 4.2 million shares outstanding with a 2.2m share float. I would give this puppy about a year to see $20-25 but it is a nice trading stock as well for smaller positions. Check the chart. Yeah, yeah I know its a broken stock <g>.