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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: miklosh who wrote (20225)	8/5/1998 7:01:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

miklosh, >>will COMS be a market leader in cable modems? << yes. >>Why anyone would even consider upgrading their modem for a marginal 30-50% increase in speed when they could upgrade for a 10,000+% increase and have the added benefit of freeing up a phone line is beyond me.<< Consider yourself lucky. Most people don't have access to cable modems, and if they do it's usually more expensive. Steve Porter (use to post here for a while) is from Canada, and from talking to him it sounds like Canada is ahead of US in higher bandwidth...you can email him for questions. >>IMHO based on the rapid implementation in Montreal, modem (and adsl)technologys will scoop up market share much sooner than later , and conventional modem technology will be toast much sooner than anticipated.<< I hope your right...makes no difference to 3Com because there ready for xDSL and Cable, but look at this chart on predicted modem market share: 56k.com This site also has a lot of info on 56K modems. Little by people will learn that x2 is the way to go vs. 56KFlex. >>Is COMS well positioned for this reality or will they be stocked with huge inventories of obsolete technology?<< first of all they won't be overstocked with huge inventories of anything after redoing their inventory control system...no more stuffed inventory. The question is: Will there enough product demand to make a profit? 56K modems will be around for a long time...especially in many places around the world that are just starting to get Internet service. >>What companies are currently benefiting the most from this shift to cable and adsl?<< I'm sure one day these things will get off the ground, but I'm not holding my breath. When they do, COMS is a major player, if not the best. I'm not sure anybody is benefiting now, because there isn't as much usage as you might think. IMO, the telephone companies and the cable companies have to spend a lot of $$ for infrastructure to provide these services. They don't want to be heavily in debt until they are sure they can make a profit. Maybe it's simpler in Canada?...I don't know.

To: miklosh who wrote (20225)	8/5/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

To all: Here's some interesting stuff from the "ghost" thread. We don't want those guys knowing more than we do, so we have to "steal" their info :-) Message 5421441

To: miklosh who wrote (20225)	8/5/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: chitchat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

There are issues with electrical interference, line quality and what is true bandwidth. Just taking 1 sample point or even 100's in 1 million installation and claiming good throughput is/willnot be acceptable to service company (RBOCS, CLEC). RBOC's are not going to let their money drain so easily by giving up their good lines. Just get real in life and look at it from local loop companies perspective. In other words, the migration will be slow and 3com will definetly play in the market just by being rational following the footsteps of modem.

To: miklosh who wrote (20225)	8/5/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: Eric L.	Respond to of 45548

miklosh, IMO I think coms is positioned very well in any modem application be it 56k, cable, xDSL, etc. It will take time for cable operations to get up to speed (no pun intended), however, I personally am holding out for ADSL since it uses regular copper wires and doesn't slow down if everyone in the neighborhood is watching cable TV. But that's my personal preference. As to will they be a market leader, I believe so...will they be THE market leader, I hope so. Hope my opinion helps. Regards, 3Com Boy!

To: miklosh who wrote (20225)	8/6/1998 11:52:00 PM
From: matt fahy	Respond to of 45548

miklosh, <Is COMS well positioned for this reality or will they be stocked with huge inventories of obsolete technology? 3Com has supposedly adjusted its inventory practice since the recent "stuffed channel" of modems. As long as production levels are linked to its distribution channel monitoring activities then it should be able to respond to changing technology as to avoid substantial writeoff's of excess obsolete stuff. This is a very critical process within any technology firm, managing changing techologies, that doesn't mean they are always successful. Remember, the main problem was when 3Com bought USRX it was probably unaware of USRX's aggressive revenue recognition practices through its distrution channel and exactly how much was in the channel. I have no reason to believe 3Com can not manage this technology transition in the future. Matt

To: miklosh who wrote (20225)	8/7/1998 1:23:00 AM
From: miklosh	Respond to of 45548

from sleeping.com<g> "Time to buy 3Com (COMS)? Hey, if disk drive and chip equipment stocks are being considered bargains at current levels, why not COMS... Company's inventory problems largely behind it and new products offer hope... If market tone improves, stock could easily trend back toward 30-32 range over next few months." I doubt coms will stay in that range for long.If (when) it gets to 32 the funds and momentum players will quickly propel coms towards 40 and beyond. Either that or it's back to the dog pound for just a little while longer.<g>