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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (22554)	8/6/1998 2:53:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

AMAT's PE (at the end of 1999) would be 67, an all-time high, if the stock price stays at 34.0625 for the next 18 months, and they make 0.51 in earnings in 1999. I predict it doesn't happen, 99% certainty. Something's gotta give. I don't think those earnings estimates are accurate, but the point is that Mr. Market does, and he acts on them. Either the earnings will be a lot higher, or the stock price will be a lot lower. Either all the earnings estimates that have been ratcheted down,down,down all year are going to reverse course soon, and go up just as quickly, or the stock has to go down during the rest of 1998. The stock won't trade based on expected year 2000 earnings (assuming anyone still believes earnings estimates for AMAT) until the beginning of 1999. Even doubling the earnings to 1.00, and assuming no recession or bear market, still leaves the PE too high. And nothing any analyst or CEO or market guru or SI poster says can affect that choice. It's one or the other. That's what the numbers say, when you focus on the essentials, and strip away all the noise and wishful thinking. Noise and wishful thinking make up 99% of what is said about AMAT, in the press and on this thread. I apologize in advance if anyone is offended, but that's the way I see it.