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Technology Stocks : C-Cube -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (34990)	8/6/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: BillyG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50808

Thanks Rarebird. I enjoy reading your real views on the market, without the accompanying hype. I don't have any insight into what the U.S. stock market will do short term, and when it will do it. I agree that things are worsening in Asia. It remains to be seen how and to what extent China will be affected. China remains an excellent market for CUBE for the foreseeable future. China's stock market is overvalued: mercurycenter.com Life is short term. It is long enough for me, and for you I certainly hope, for multi-year investments to pay off and leave you with plenty of time to enjoy the rewards.

To: Rarebird who wrote (34990)	8/6/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Jan Crawley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

Options activities: This morning, 1,000 Aug 17 1/2 put contracts and 1,000 Nov. 17 1/2 put contracts were initiated at the same time. Straddle of some kind? Comments? Thank you.

To: Rarebird who wrote (34990)	8/6/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: DiViT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

Nice reasonable post... Hope that future posts you make to this thread are similar in tone. Thanks

To: Rarebird who wrote (34990)	8/6/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: Peter V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

RB - Let me be the third to thank you for an articulate and well-reasoned post. I welcome similar posts in the future. btw, what are your short picks?

To: Rarebird who wrote (34990)	8/6/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: John Rieman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

I agree that the market will head lower. It deserves too. PEs on the S&P have never been this high. I raised cash the first part of February, and I'm still holding that cash. This inflow of stupid money is just keeping it afloat, but it won't last forever. Oh BTW, MO is is great numbers play. If you hold it, it will pay you the price of the stock in dividends, before the court battles end. C-Cube's conference call(Horrible!) was like a groundhog seeing its shadow, 6 more weeks of winter. In Q2 Cube's VCD market started a transition to CVD. VCD 2.0 chip inventories in the channel needed to be reduced. The Total shipments were 2.8M units, much lower than production, which should have been between 3.2M and 3.4M units. Chinese companies do have quotas. In Q3, I'm starting to see these numbers: VCD 3.5M units worth between $35M and $38M, depending on product mix. DVD has run at or below $3M for 3 straight Qs. Let's just call it $3M. Divicom's sales were about $36M last Q, $41M in Q3. Settops were $9M, and should be close to $12M this Q, with SkyperfecTV ramping up, Canal + always does well in Q3, and the build to the Holiday season. Encoders were about $4.5M last Q. With the new single chips, ASPs have and will continue to drop. Let's just call it $4.5M in Q3. Total sales for Q3 = at least $95.5M. Take out $2M for reserves and C-Cube should report over $93.5M, 13% sequential growth. Potential areas that may do better are VCD, DVD, and encoders. Now to get to EPS: Revenue $93.5M COG 42M( 55% gross margins, down from 55.5%) Gross 51.5M R&D 19.1M SG&A 14.5M op income 17.9M other .6M Before tax $18.5M taxes 5.6M (30%) Net income $12.9M 41.5M shares $.31 per share