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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (14088)	8/6/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42787

Hi TT: >>NOPE-- the essence of a trader--at least a good one -- is to let the market guide you. No one can see the future -- and one should not try, IMO.<<<< Balderdash! When you use technical analysis, fundamental analysis etc. you are making decisions about future events - you ARE letting the market guide you as to the probability of Dell hitting 120 in two weeks. >>>Now tell me what the stupendous evidence is --specifics-- that the economy will not be in fine shape in 6-12 months.<<<< 1) 4/8 year cycle lows have worked like the rhythmical clockwork - business slowdowns of 94, 90, 86, 82, 78, 74, 70 etc., of course if you are of the new era persuasion the business cycle has been repealed. : -) 2) Downward revisions in GDP and earnings momentum. Earnings momentum peaked two years ago. Look at the intel chart, gone no where since early 97. 3) 25% of the world economy in recession/depression and the list is growing. >>>>I know that you have cited the Dow Theory sell signal several times.<<< Dow Theory is a tried and true method and would have warned many to start pairing back when the transports failed their uptrend line in Mid July. In this 'new era' people don't consider Dow Theory relevant anymore, kind of like dividends. Everything returns to the mean. Marke Twain's "The Law of Periodical Repetition": in which everything which has happened once must happen again and again and as he put it -- not capriciously -- but at regular periods. And with each thing obeying its own period and establishing its own law. He pointed to Nature, the Mother Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the skies and the oceans, . . . the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Twain's counsel to readers was to never under-rate the value of such a hint, stating "for where times may change, nature often repeats" bb