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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (22665)	8/7/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

13.4M shares traded and still no gain/ loss. BB

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (22665)	8/7/1998 5:43:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ramsey, I'm having this heretical thought. <gg> What if China devalues its currency.....and nobody cares?? Well, I'm sure their competitors, such as the Malaysians and Indonesians etc. will care. But why should we care all that much here? Isn't it mostly in the market already? Hasn't it been the dark fear for some extended period of time? I guess the "big thing" that could happen is the Hong Kong peg could collapse. That is thought to be scarry. But why? What difference will it make here? I'm sure the market would have a scarry day at least if this stuff happened, but I'm starting to wonder if it would be a lot more than that. At least from these levels. Doug

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (22665)	8/7/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Let me get this straight. Fabs are operating at 50 to 75% capacity. Others are shutting down. Rebound in demand is as follows 3% in 1998 and 9% in 1999. Sounds like at least the year 2000 before we use up excess capacity. As soon as prices firm and improve, Korea strapped for currency will increase production. Some analyst says baring any further unforeseen problems in Asia. He must be blind. The Hong Kong dollar is under severe attack. Smart Money says they will drop the peg (sounds good when you use the term "Smart Money", rather than "I think"). I do believe that China will devalue or float their currency. Buffet wouldn't buy INTC, MSFT, AMAT or CSCO. As I recall there was significant insider selling at AMAT in 1997 prior to the big drop in stock price. I guess that was them telling us what they were hearing from their customer polls. I don't think they have started rebuying yet. John