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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (22675)	8/7/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<As I recall there was significant insider selling at AMAT in 1997 prior to the big drop in stock price. I guess that was them telling us what they were hearing from their customer polls.> Maybe, but at that point (mid August), I suspect that they were just selling because they hadn't been able to sell in a while (depressed stock), and AMAT was pretty pricey right then (it had just quadrupled in price while only increasing revs by 30% or so). And at that point most of Asia didn't even know they were fast approaching a cliff. All JMO, 'cause none of this is provable. Clark

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (22675)	8/8/1998 11:12:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Teri, Katherine, anyone, more tech questions. May be this is due to my lack of technical knowledge but the numbers do not add up to me..... NEC is "cutting down" 64M DRAM to 8 million units per month. I think Samsung and one of the other Koreans are doing same. Didn't Siemens say they are aiming for about the same units? If my math is correct, there are still 32 million units per month being produced, not to mention whatever amount of 16M DRAMs still in production. Isn't PC the main user of these chips? How many PC units are being sold each month and how much memory upgrade are consumers buying? Even if we give it a generous assumption that the average new PC and upgrade is 128M, the industry still need 16 million "sales" just to absorb this capacity. My guess is that I must be misunderstanding these unit figures. Someone please enlighten the technology challenged. Ramsey