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To: TREND1 who wrote (37097)	8/7/1998 4:29:00 PM
From: phbolton	Respond to of 53903

Larry: on June 15 DRAM had fallen about 30% in the prior few days, since then DRAM has been more or less flat to down a bit and MU has gone up 82%. Around Dec 16 prices were flat (remember when 16MB SDRAM was $4.50!!!). Go figure.

To: TREND1 who wrote (37097)	8/7/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

lower highs and lower lows...

To: TREND1 who wrote (37097)	8/7/1998 5:09:00 PM
From: James Spence	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, here are thoughts from someone who knows very little... 1. MU, as you have stated, trades largely on perception and momentum. Large brokerage firms and other institutions have significant control over the stock price. They tend to help exacerbate a stock price move causing great volatility. 2. Fundamental stock pickers have difficulty trading MU because MU doesn't totally trade on fundamental, historic information. This is the perception aspect of MU stock price movement. It is true that fundamental traders will have huge wins from MU, but they will always give that back when MU decides to pull a head fake. 3. Trade MU from purely a technical and probability standpoint or don't trade MU. You'll win more than you lose. MU is great for momentum trading. You just have to make sure your price model for buying and exiting is programmed correctly. 4. The current run-up in DRAM prices is more due to a contraction in supply than a huge increase in demand (this is an assumption I am making that I believe to be true). This type of price increase will invariably fail. Reason: Eventually the price increase point is reached where the producers must, from a financial standpoint, begin to produce more units. That point is when variable and fixed costs are covered which is lower than the book profit price point. While the producers will say they are giving up on their 16 Mbit production lines, they are going to start cranking their 64 Mbit lines. 5. MU is the low cost producer. That may not be totally true. Remember they decided not to book a $1 billion building in Utah. Add the depreciation cost to their bottom line and they don't look so good. Damn good book keepers at MU. You have to give them credit for that. 6. Technically MU has run up as much as it can in the current time period. Your chart shows this. If MU falls as much as it has in the past, it should trade between $24.5 and 27.5 before the end of August. 7. Put that down as my MU prediction for August. 8. After the next downturn, MU will have a spectacular an unpredicted rally. It always does.

To: TREND1 who wrote (37097)	8/7/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: Li Cai	Respond to of 53903

Stock market always surprises people. When many people predict a drop, you will see a jump.