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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom who wrote (2034)	8/7/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Tom, <<There are good reasons to be optimistic about the Philippine economy...>> I'd love to hear them, and I'm not joking. Mood here at the moment is not optimistic. Pretty grim all around the region, this morning, on a quick news/thread check (see recent Asia Forum posts). Not long ago I said I didn't expect a China/HK devaluation unless there was a qualitative change in the situation. Now wondering if the flood damage and prospects of another round of regional collapses (Indonesia and SK looking very shaky) would qualify as a qualitative change. In some ways, though, the second round of collapses are necessary, and it might be better sooner than later. I don't think there's going to be any real recovery without real changes in leadership, and the current level of disaster hasn't succeeded in forcing those changes. Still expect - based more on gut feel than any calculation - that the US economy can scrape through another round with controllable damage, if people don't panic and Europe keeps growing and investing. Very interesting to see what level of disaster is required to force leadership change, and what sort of new leaders emerge. Among other things. Steve