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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12916)	8/8/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: ED_L	Respond to of 23519

Talk on the PM board about PM needing an impotence drug to round out their line. Ref post #(1693) et.al.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12916)	8/8/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: J Moberly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

That sounds like a great thought. I will be the first to post. Negative Action---- 1. VVUS runs out of cash because they are not selling anything. 2. VVUS declares bankruptcy. 3. VVUS trades at 0.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12916)	8/8/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: Andeveron	Respond to of 23519

>> I. Positive actions, opinions and conditions that could drive the price of VVUS higher. << Scenario: Viagra causes 200 men to crash their cars after taking the pill. 200 lawsuits are filed and all of the men involved endorse the use of Muse. >> II. Negative actions, opinions and conditions that could drive the price of VVUS lower. << Scenario: Survey polls show that 200 men in cars are satisfied with Viagra and tell all of their bar buddies that it's guaranteed wood.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12916)	8/8/1998 9:54:00 PM
From: KHS	Respond to of 23519

BIGKNY3 From reading your posts over the last year, I feel you have great knowledge and foresight for med sector. The sector has been good to us. Long PFE for 10 years. I have a question and would be intersted in your reply. Vivus's delivery system seems to be the #1 asset they have. Patent. Analyst keep say VVUS's solution has a delivery problem. This is contradicting. What do you think? Does this delivery patent have other application that could be of use to a larger med company? Do they have the right gun, but shooting with the wrong ammo? VVUS's R&D on other products is probably hype. Why would they be able to develope better products than larger med companies with bigger R&D budgets? VVUS has a production facility. Could their facility produce other products outside of the pellet? Look forward to your and or other responses from thread participants.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12916)	8/9/1998 1:26:00 AM
From: bigg e	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Kahuna...okay I'll give it a go. Position is long approx 3000sh between myself and Family Ltd Partnership averaged approx 7-7 1/4. On the plus side..1) new production facility in place with 50% reduction in production costs. should reflect better on Q3 product margins, 2) per company all product manufactured is shipped thus I assume sold, 3) international scrips increasing with approx 25 new countries pending (time frame unknown), 4) milestones from Astra for international approvals, 5) Alibra in phase III per company with potential advisory board review '99, 6) patented delivery system, 7) one time charge for release of Innovex sales force accounted for in Q2, 8) Committed to seeking domestic sales partner with undertones in Q2 conference of possible outright sale, 9) local application alternative vs systemic, 10) company is followed by some larger brokerage firms creating necessary exposure for small cap, 11) efficacy studies indicating success in more severe ED cases......and in the opposite corner...1) Viagra...company thought the attempted advertising campaign would offset the initial onslaught and they could take on PFE with the internal domestic sales force. A miserable failure and large waste of assets for a fruitless venture. Had the opportunity to join with J&J prior to Viagra introduction but company, with sucess of MUSE launch, was a bit too cocky, 2) Viagra impact domestically (70% scrip fallout) and the unknown impact of Viagra introduction internationally, 3) flat domestic sales and sales force in limbo pending partnership or buyout, 4) quarterly reduction of cash position and current burn rate, 5) pending ED competition on the horizon, 7) patient fear of the urethal application and apparent need of better demonstration to the patient, 8) 40% reduction in shareholder value Q2 '97 thru Q2 '98.... These are a few ideas. I believe the company, as an ongoing concern, can survive on its own. The question is can they turnaround and begin to show sequential growth again and at what level? Or is a buyout in the offing? I suppose we shall see...

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12916)	8/10/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

A VVUSer Board Challenge BigKNY3 <<I challenge each Board poster and lurker to post a list of facts, opinions, and assumed market and company conditions and actions that will positively and negatively impact the price of VVUS.>> Here's my own entry: I. Positive actions, opinions and conditions that could drive the price of VVUS higher. A. VVUS is a biotech company built on the unique therapeutic platform of transurethral delivery MUSE is one of only four major pharmaceutical products approved for the treatment of the erectile dysfunction. After leading the market and attaining product sales of $130 million in 1997, MUSE sales for YTD June 1998 were $40.5 million. B. VVUS is undervalued in comparison with prices during the last year The current price of VVUS (6 1/32) is near its 52 week low ( 5 3/4 to 41 7/8). dailystocks.net C. The Erectile Dysfunction Market is Rapidly Expanding Due to the introduction of Viagra in April, more patients sought treatment for ED in that month than all of 1997. Given that Viagra is not effective for all patients and concerns about safety, MUSE may eventually benefit from Viagra's very big coattails. Moreover, if Viagra was removed from the market by the FDA, MUSE would once again have the non-invasive ED market to itself . It is estimated that the ED market in the US is from 5 to 20 million men. D. MUSE's Specification is forming a base. The average total weekly Rxs for MUSE is holding steady around 4,200 E. International MUSE Sales are Increasing International MUSE second quarter sales increased increased to $9.8 million from $2.0 million in the first quarter. F. VVUS has working relationships with three Big Pharma companies who could be potential future partners or owners of VVUS Alza: In 1991, Alza passed on the opportunity to develop transurethral delievery leading to the founding of VVUS. In July, 1998, Alza hired VVUS' 75 urology representatives and the Innovex PCP contract. Johnson & Johnson: Sold VVUS a separate patent on transurethral delivery and is a licensee of VVUS with marketing rights in selected parts of the world. Astra: Licensee of VVUS in UK and other countries G. VVUS has taken steps to reduce costs in staff and production VVUS has moved its sales force to Alza and reduced personnel in "administration, R &D, and marketing". Moreover, the new NJ plant could reduce manufacturing costs by 50% over time H. New products are in development A new product Alibra may offer efficacy and toleration advantages. I. Two Analysts Have VVUS as a Strong Buy Charles Osziewski (PaineWebber) 7/7/98 VVUS@ 6 7/8:" Turn in Rxs, new manufacturing facility, and restructuring plan". Target :$20- 12 month price target. Wole Fayemi (Cruttenden Roth) 4/23/98 VVUS@ 8 1/8 " VVUS well positioned to capitalize on significant # of patients who will fail on Viagra." Target: $23 for year end price II. Negative actions, opinions and conditions that could drive the price of VVUS lower. A. New Competition has Resulted in Declining Specification and Sales Since the introduction of Viagra, MUSE has lost 74% of its specification. Current average total Rxs of 4,200 are down from the 1997 weekly average of 15,800. To return to 1997 levels, current Rxs must increase by 148%. Total YTD June, sales of $40.5 million represent a 34% decline over YTD, 1997. Moreover, specification is shifting from urologists to primary care requiring increased resources. ims-america.com B. No Coattail Effect and Patient Perception of MUSE With the expansion of the ED market by over 16 times, it was anticipated that MUSE would benefit from those ED patients who could not be effectively or safely treated with Viagra. However, since April there has been no coattail effect on MUSE's specification. The patient reception to transurethral delivery and associated penile pain apparently continue to limit usage. C. Dependence on Transurethral Delivery and VVUS Management MUSE is VVUS and VVUS is MUSE. VVUS' major new product Alibra is a transurethral variation of MUSE. Interviewed in the January, 1998 issue of Script, Leland Wilson was quoted: "the product is our life. We either fail greatly or we make a lot of money." The application of transurethral delivery to anything other than ED is questionable. Along the way, VVUS management has made many costly mistakes in marketing , production, and treatment of their shareholders. D. Big Pharma's Interest in MUSE and VVUS is limited J &J and Alza have already passed on transurethral delivery technology in the early 1990s. In July 1998, Alza was primarily interested in the VVUS field force and has relegated the former VVUS representatives to "spending a small portion of their time " detailing MUSE until the end of 1998. Alza Press Release 7/9/98 "Under terms of the agreement with VIVUS, the urology representatives joining ALZA from VIVUS will, until the end of this calendar year, spend a small proportion of their time detailing MUSE(R)(alprostadil), a treatment for erectile dysfunction." Moreover, finding a Big Pharma PCP partner for such a relatively small product in an evolving complex market will be extremely difficult. A specialty pharmaceutical company is a more likely candidate. The resulting lack of MUSE field time during this period of time will also put added pressure on specification. E. The Price Trend is Down Although VVUS has already shown a sharp decline and is near its low, declining stocks historically tend to continue to go lower. The anti-Newton Law does not apply to stocks. "What goes down, must go up." F. FDA Position on Viagra and PFE The FDA has supported the current labeling and safety of Viagra. Based on the experience with over 4,00 patients in clinical trials and usage in over 3.5 million patients since its approval, the probability that Viagra will be taken off the market or have a significant labeling change is remote. PFE is also considered the premier marketing company in the pharmaceutical industry. G. Key Management is Leaving Two key members of VVUS' management team have left in July...not a positive sign; Mary Bordeaux (National Accounts Director) and John Richard (VP, Corporate Development). Mr Richard was responsible for handling VVUS business development and was probably the VVUS dealmaker. On the VVUS website, he is still listed as one of the top 10 VVUS managers. www3.techstocks.com vivus.com H International Sales May Be Vulnerable Although international sales are growing, profit margins are lower as compared to the US . Moreover, it is expected that Viagra will be available in over 50 countries by the end of 1998. By the year 2000, additional ED products will be on the markets. I. Analysts Ties to Investment Banking The only two analysts with VVUS strong buys have been associated with the investment banking functions of VVUS. In 1996, PaineWebber raised funding for VVUS with Genesis Merchant Group. Wole Fayemi was previously an analyst for Genesis when on 10/11/97 he had a VVUS price target of 75. Bottom Line: For VVUS to move up....something big has to happen ...very soon. I currently do not have a VVUS position and only take long positions in stocks. Stock research is obviously one of my hobbies. The ED field is of particularly interest due to my PFE investment. Hopefully this post will provide information and insight into your investment. Good luck!!! BigKNY3