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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (12896)	8/8/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<<How is that for a pretty much lousy post? <G> >>> It is anything but a lousy post. It only feels lousy as you wrote it because you are grappling with the terrifying issue which most bears on this thread don't want to face: Every potential catalyst for the collapse of this stock has failed so far. First catalyst was going to be the end of the original 180 day lockup for insider selling. Then it was going to be a post-holiday slump (i.e. poor revenue growth Q198 vs Q497). Then it was going to be competition from BKS. Then the insider selling window this past week. And there have been others. It is easy for bears to post about how lousy the fundamentals are. I don't disagree with this. They stink. But the only stocks I ever shorted successfully were biotechs--you sell short on the open of trading in the morning after the announcement of good news (whatever news they announce, it won't make them money for years) and buy back a few days later after the inevitable post-news selloff. It worked like a charm for me. (Sorry I missed ENMD--it went from 12 to 78 to the 30's within a couple weeks--it was the mother of all obvious biotech shorts). But I wouldn't short a stock unless I knew it was going to go my way in a short time. For me, a short time is a few days or 2-3 weeks. I regret that I was not more forceful a few months ago in encouraging the AMZN shorts to go after some less-connected competitors of AMZN, like CDNW. My father shorted that one on my advice above thirty as a hedge against his AMZN long. Its in the teens now, of course. I am sorry to see so many bright people like yourself have such a rough time with this beast. I agree that it isn't fair. But who ever said that AMZN would be fairly valued by the market? I wish that the bears would help each other (and the bulls) more by discussing WHEN AMZN is going down that toilet and WHY that it will happen within that time frame. Because otherwise we are left with a stock which is extremely unpredictable. So far it looks like it has been manipulated so as if to tease and and then squeeze short-sellers. From my perspective, postings that liken the stock to a bloated pig and calling the bulls "nuts" just charge up the discussions on the thread with a lot of emotion. They add heat but no light to the discussion. Many times these disrespecful post make me abandon the thread for weeks. The other aspect of this valuation issue is that I have lots of paper profits mostly through luck. I don't know more than anybody else on the thread, and maybe I am ahead because I know less and this is all irrational. I can't advise the bears to give up their positions because it may turn out that just when the stock looks like it will never go below 100 again is when it might proceed to collapse. I sure don't know which way it is headed, any more than anybody else. But whether traders or long-term investors, we need more discussions about catalysts. Best Regards, Tom D