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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (27373)	8/8/1998 1:21:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Hi Jim, Thanks for the Hvide article. I guess it all boils down to how long the market stays depressed. The aggressive growth strategy will pay great rewards if oil prices rebound in the near future. If you subscribe to the 3 to 4 years before the market recovers, then their aggressive moves could be their undoing.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (27373)	8/8/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Capt. Hopkins......great points. <<You better "KNOW" the company and the people in it personally, if your playing these things. Forget the PR and Analcyst, and stuff you read on the net or hear on CNBC. Long term you know XON and such will be around, but don't count on many of these service companies to survive a serious down turn, by the time you hear they are in trouble it's too late. Jim>> I can dig in pretty firmly on one side of an issue; but I am not unopen to the flip-side/downside on any issue... I am very Bullish near and long term here; but have shifted considerably on the Asian demand factor being a more primary driver than I had first thought. I do not think Oil will go to/or stay at $12, but we do have factors such as a YEN problem leading to a Chinese devaluation - which could trigger a chain of events to $10 Oil - it's not probable, but is entirely possible. So buying here must be with the financial strength of the company firmly in the forefront. I think we have bottomed here in that we will re-test the lows of a week ago; so this little bump is a "V" bottom and I actually think it is not only good for us to see a re-test, but have no-doubt that we will; as there was nothing to drive this sector upward. By that I mean the value was allways here - unquestionably; but what triggered the institutional money to this degree ? There is cause for sector rotation as I firmly believe we are 10-15% overvalued in the overall market. Maybe the big money just realized that they were lucky in not getting caught in Acampora's downdraft more than they were, and they know it's still coming. This is the only thing I see - is that they finally sensed the correction is coming and rotated into undervalued sectors. But, the danger lies that if Crude Oil languishes and the overall market moves upward strongly - they will shift back out in a heartbeat off ANY negative news/crude oil -OPEC numbers... They did not buy here off of the recent good earnings numbers - actually sold off into the news - intelligently. I do not think they are fundamentally sold on Oil quite yet. So I am suspicious as to getting caught in a quick shift of their money back out on any negatives. Buying longterm here is close enough to the bottom to be beyond criticism, but we do have downside and I now think it is going to take a little longer to get to $18 Oil. I think Q3 1999 will be the turning point, but this is a great place to buy selected individual companies on major selloffs and there are great trading opportunities here short term.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (27373)	8/8/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Richard D	Respond to of 95453

Islamic Jihad and potential culprits, from NY Times online: <<A group calling itself the Army for the Liberation of Islamic Shrines claimed responsibility in a phone call to the Cairo, Egypt, office of Al-Hayat, a daily Arabic language newspaper published in London, the newspaper reported today. Another group, calling itself the Islamic Jihad, vowed last week to strike American interests because some of its members were arrested in Albania, according to a report Thursday in Al-Hayat. Several groups use the name Islamic Jihad. This one is considered the successor to groups that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. It has not claimed responsibility. One suspected terrorist being examined in the wake of the explosions is exiled Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden, U.S. officials said. Bin Laden has threatened a holy war against U.S. troops and Americans. He also is suspected of backing other terrorist acts including the 1996 attack in Saudi Arabia. >> Some countries send their youth to the Boy Scouts others ....to the Islamic Jihad. It's still a primitive world over there. Richard