To: Gameboy who wrote (27396 ) 8/9/1998 6:38:00 PM From: Snowshoe Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
Gameboy, >>The last paragraph of the EIA update summarizes the world oil consumption growth at 1.2 million barrels/day in 1998 more than in 1997 - 300,000 barrels/day (a full third) more than numbers quoted in the article.<< It looks like IEA and EIA have slightly different forecasts for incremental oil consumption growth in 1998. >>The OPEC Fact Sheet from EIA shows July 1st production cutbacks quotas as 1.595 million barrels/day. I believe compliance is estimated at least at 80% to as high as 90%.<< I am still interested in hearing you provide some facts to back up your "correction" of the IEA data on July OPEC cutback compliance. I believe the problem was that some members were unable to meet their cutbacks quotas in July due to contractual obligations and problems regarding the shutting down of oil fields. >>About Venezuela, they have been in the news this past week because apparently they have fully complied with their 15% cutback quota (and have consequently shut down some 59% of their rigs).<< The fact that Venezuela is shutting down rigs is impressive evidence of its determination to meet the cutback quota, but rigs have no effect on current production. As I stated, they did not fully meet their production cutback in July because of contractual agreements, but plan to in August. Here is one of the news stories on this: biz.yahoo.com >>Is the worldwide supply of oil in July exceeding demand? If the supply of oil were greater than demand it would be a buyer's market and the price would be falling. Since the price of oil has been rising, every single week in July, I conclude the supply is less than the demand, and it is indeed a seller's market.<< Gameboy, let me quote your original "correction", which was about world oil stocks:3) But, said the IEA, even assuming further supply cuts the world's hoard of oil is likely to grow even further in July and August. Wrong. The total world price of oil has climbed weekly in July from $11.00, to $11.17, to $11.30, to $11.49, and finally to $11.90 week ending July 31st largely the effects of the supply cuts. I am still waiting for you to provide evidence to support your "correction" of IEA's forecast that world oil stocks would grow in July and August. In fact, the same EIA site you provided indicated that US crude stocks actually rose during July at the same time prices were rising: eia.doe.gov Gameboy, I think you are just doing some minor quibbling with the statistics in order to put positive "spin" on what is basically mixed news for the oil patch. -Greg