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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (1690)	8/10/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Papaya, I am not surprised at all about FLC buying someone else but am not privy to any advance info. But even if I have any, do you think I would post it in the open so that those spyeyes can catch me red handed? <GG> BTW, Big Dog did mention in his latest newletter that something of this sort was coming real soon. Anyway, regarding the 1.7 ratio, one of the followings will happen tomorrow: 1. CDG pops up, FLC stays flat; 2. FLC drops down some more, CDG either stays flat or pops up a bit; 3. They both pop, with CDG popping much more; 4. They both drop, with FLC taking a big beating. I recall the 1 million share trade at $17 last Friday that crossed. Now we know the news, it is very likely this was a pre-announcement selling by those in the know. Therefore, it makes $17 a very nice resistence TA-wise and all. Anyway, I will be placing a stop sell limit on FLC tomorrow and will walk away with a winner regardless. Simply based on my understanding of both companies, FLC is buying a shallow water driller with obvious dayrate in decline. Therefore, short term FLC will not win anything but may even further dilute its earning. But their intention is clear, they want rigs to build business. They are in love with themselves. Their acquisition of RB last year bought them the deepwater exposure and now CDG adds to their shallow water exposure - making them a one stop shopping center for rigs. Maybe they will eye NE next. After it is clear to the street that FLC intents to be the offshore consolidator, FLC's stock price will be seriously capped in this weakening environment. However, the reverse is true when things recover. The bigger cap drillers will continue to drop while the smaller cap drillers will likely rally tomorrow. I will watch for MDCO, ATW and probably ESV tomorrow to do some rallying. PDE, NE, GLM, RIG and DO will be just flat if any rally at all for them. MDCO and ATW should benefit tomorrow but ATW really took the lump today probably after the street realized that ATW is not the one being taken over. But the selling was probably excessive.