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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (23861)	8/11/1998 1:34:00 AM
From: set	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

> we got to do a Moon shot with the small caps Something is wrong here. There are two scenarios which are considered classic preludes to the end of a bull market. One is the A/D line divergence, and the other is a small cap rally. well - these two cannot coexist. Looking at a couple of charts: tscn.com tscn.com it really looks like the RUT move that precedes a collapse is typically a blow-off move. Blow-off moves don't happen off of lows, but are extensions of an existing trend. Last year, for example, the RUT had already made new highs before the big trouble indicating move took place. I'm arguing that the big H&S showing in the RUT was the move you're looking for. It's over already. tscn.com The above chart is not a correction in the RUT. It's lower highs and lower lows. In fact it's the first lower low since 1994. Besides all that small caps individually still look like hell to me and I just can't see the setup for a meaningful rally in them. so - either a bear market is beginning right now or one has already take place and is about over. :) Neither scenario is one in which blow-off moves are indicated. Shahar

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (23861)	8/11/1998 7:46:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

we got to do a Moon shot with the small caps As I understand from history and the recent behavior of the Aussie market small caps die first as institutional investors move to liquidity of big caps in order to dump fast in the crash. In Aus the "small ordinaries" index is down 15% over the last year. The "all ordinaries" which includes big caps too is about level. Microcaps as represented by First State's Developing Companies Fund (which I quit before things were as bad as this) are down 25%. The same thing is happening in the US in the Russell Index going first. By the way, right now the SPX futures is 1072.50 down 16 from the close on the SPX. I bought my index put warrants. The decline here is unlikely to be so strong here however, as plenty of stocks are already paying 6 or 7% dividend yields. David