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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fut_trade who wrote (1322)	8/11/1998 5:11:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Respond to of 3902

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall Humpty Dumpty had a great fall All the kings Horseman And all the Kings' Knights Couldn't put Humpty Dumpty together again. The crash of all the markets is already in the making. The ride down was locked in on 04/20/98 when the M2 RATE {do a MACD} took a downtrend trend. Since than the DOW went sideways, and the world has suffered. Liquidity, which was pumped high, was removed. Now their is little holding the house of cards up. Check for yourself. stls.frb.org PS: the longer the DOW takes to correct, the harder it will hit.

To: fut_trade who wrote (1322)	8/12/1998 4:56:00 AM
From: fut_trade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Markets give Japan's embattled govt thumbs down By Linda Sieg TOKYO, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Financial markets are giving Japan's new government the thumbs down before it is even two weeks old and ruling politicians face an enormous task to restore confidence battered by past policy procrastination. ''Markets are not giving (Prime Minister Keizo) Obuchi the benefit of the doubt because they've been burned too many times in the past,'' said Ron Bevacqua, an economist at Merrill Lynch Japan. ''There is such a lack of confidence and trust that it will take a very long time to be restored.'' Worries about Japan's economic outlook helped push the yen to an eight-year low of 147.64 yen to the dollar on Tuesday, and its fall contributed to a 1.4 percent slide in the Tokyo stock market's key barometer. Asian share prices also sank and New York stocks finished at a five-month closing low. On Wednesday the yen rebounded to about 146 to the dollar in Tokyo after jaw-boning by Japanese officials and jitters about Bank of Japan intervention, but sentiment was weak. Tokyo share prices closed down marginally, extending their losing streak to an eight trading day. Overseas analysts have been scathing in assessing Obuchi's policies as a boring summer re-run of the same policy failures that have tipped Japan's economy into its worst postwar recession after nearly eight years of stagnation. That harsh judgment, however, may be too hasty, some economists in Tokyo said. ''I think people are underestimating the Obuchi-Miyazawa nexus,'' Bevacqua said, referring to former premier Kiichi Miyazawa, 78, who holds the finance portfolio. ''I don't think Obuchi is as much of a lightweight as he is seen to be, and neither is Miyazawa.'' Bevacqua added: ''Obuchi is also lucky. Fiscal reform has been abandoned and public funds are available (for the banking system), so there's a much more favourable policy environment.'' Obuchi has promised to freeze the Fiscal Reform Law, which had placed fiscal spending in a strait jacket, and pledged ''substantially more than six trillion yen'' worth of tax cuts for next year as well as a 10 trillion yen-plus extra stimulative budget for the current business year. ''The new government is being much more aggressive on both tax cuts and spending...and coordination between the cabinet and the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party),'' said Robert Feldman, chief economist for Japan at Morgan Stanley. ''I don't think it's fair to say they are the same old guys and not doing anything.'' The government has also submitted to a special session of parliament bills aimed at a financial sector cleanup including legislation for a ''bridge bank'' scheme to wind up failed banks while providing loans to ''healthy borrowers.'' Faced with criticism of the bank sector plan as too timid and lacking a majority in the Upper House, the government has said it will compromise with the opposition on the issue. Still, even those who point to policy progress say bolder moves are needed. Promised fiscal measures -- now in the process of being fleshed out -- may not arrive soon enough, said Jeff Young, chief economist for Japan at Salomon Smith Barney. The budgets ''are quite a way out in the future, with the extra budget passage probably coming in March,'' he said. ''If they have decided that fiscal stimulus is one way to attack the problem, there is a strong argument for acting faster.'' More urgent, many critics say, is the need for clear signals on the compromises in store to ensure banking bills do not get bogged down -- a tough feat given that opposition parties have yet to agree on a joint stance -- and proof that authorities won't shy away from painful steps to clean up the sector. ''In terms of financial sector action, people want to see implementation of some of the measures, and if that means closing financial institutions, it means closing financial institutions,'' one financial expert said. ''The danger is that this will be a half-hearted exercise.'' Clearly, many policy-makers still want to minimise the fallout from banking sector consolidation, a stance which critics says means they lack the guts needed to mop up once and for all the bad loan mess blocking economic recovery. ''It's not the case that it's OK for any financial institution to fail,'' Finance Minister Miyazawa told parliament on Wednesday, noting that bank failures could be devastating for small companies with no alternate source of funds.