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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6594)8/11/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
Rules for Trading Halts in volatile markets.FWIW.

cboe.com



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6594)8/11/1998 5:48:00 PM
From: Ron Bower  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
Ramsey,

"Now repeat same exercise for China..."

I've concluded there's a big difference between Japan and China:

$HK & RMB still at same level, fighting attempts to devalue
interest rates - room to lower as needed
under funded pension plans - their SS a concern, but not critical
trade deficit/surplus - increasing exports, increasing imports
people - used to adversity, not used to prosperity, history of coping
demographics - workforce is youthful, energetic, optimistic
taxes - low to promote growth, incentives for business
bad debt - a problem, but not so big they can't cope
Hang Seng - dominated by banks and real estate, down more to possible problems than actual, will be quick to recover when stability attained, Red Chips underperforming

You omitted leadership:
Japan - indecisive and doing little to improve the situation
China - taking action and adapting to situations

JMHO,
Ron




To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6594)8/12/1998 7:33:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
I agree with everything except the deficit. I think there is actually a hidden capital surplus in Japan (which is being eaten away by the other factors).

Yes, there is reason for optimism long-term. The human capital in Asia (and raw goods in a number of countries, including Russia) is good and the booming economies of Europe and the Americas will hopefully prevent the kind of world depression seen in the 30's.

If all goes well, we will be able to lead them out of this rather than them sinking us. With some profit in our pockets, of course.

You know what's really ironic? The US, now the leading proponent of free world trade, was predicted by various idiot factions (read: AFL-CIO)to be digging its grave. But it's the most protectionist nations that have gone into steep decline. We have pulled WAY ahead of Japan by opening our markets to them, even when they refused to reciprocate. I don't want to make an overly broad conclusion about this, but I am astonished at the excellent results of GATT, NAFTA, and the US's generally restrained attitude towards trade sanctions with Asia.