To: Satch77 who wrote (27514 ) 8/11/1998 12:16:00 PM From: Snowshoe Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
from Briefing.com... 09:15 ET ****** OILS STOCKS. Good news and bad news. British Petroleum (BP) announced this morning that it will merge with Amoco Corp. (AN). BP will own 60% of the ensuing company, and AN shareholders will apparently receive equivalent of approximately $50 value for each AN share, a premium over Monday's close of $41 for AN. This could set off takeover speculation in the oil sector and provide a boost to beleaguered stocks. The sector may need good news today. The drop in Asian financial markets Tuesday underscores the ongoing weakness in Asian economies. A rebound in those economies, with an associated rebound in demand, is necessary for oil prices to make any significant comeback. This morning, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter lowered its forecasts for oil prices for 1998 from $17 a barrel to $15.50, and for 1999 from $19 a barrel to $17.75. The 1998 forecast reflects the reality that it is already August and there is no rebound in sight this year. The 1999 forecast may have more impact. Across Wall Street, there is an assumption that oil prices will rebound significantly in the not too distant future. That assumption is generally built into oil and oil services stock prices. If confidence in an oil price rebound fades, these sectors will be under pressure. Today, with serious weakness in overseas financials markets (see below) and Morgan Stanley's forecasts, the oil sector could have been hit hard. With the BP and AN news, the damage might not be as bad as it would have been. But until a sustainable upturn in oil prices can be reasonably expected, oil sector stocks will have trouble sustaining profit growth.