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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6603)	8/11/1998 7:15:00 PM
From: Joseph Beltran	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Ramsey, One point about AMAT and the other equipment companies which survive this downturn: this is a high margin business and earnings forecasts have been decimated. when the tide turns -an there is no doubt that it will- those earnings estimates will go through a prolonged period of being revised upwards. every day a company will announce new contracts , etc. In other words, when the cycle turns, there will be a hell of alot of $$$ to be made in this sector. As to timing, my feelings are that I cannot recall the last item of good news in this sector. all I have heard for the past year has been bad news. I also know that from a competitive and productive standpoint the chip makers will eventually be forced to upgrade their equipment and I'm willing to begin betting that we are starting to move closer to beginning of the upcycle and further away from the bottom of the downcycle. I am not suggesting to anyone that they load up on AMAT tomorrow. What I am suggesting is that this may not be a bad time to begin s l o w and systematic accumulation of shares in our favorite companies in this sector. regards