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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (6604)	8/11/1998 7:40:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 10921

Joseph, bull or bear, I don't think there is any argument from anyone here that AMAT is not a great company down on hard times due to events out of their control. The question is when. I still believe the worst is yet to come from Asia. With over 50% of AMAT's business from the area, someone else needs to step up to the plate in order for the sector to recover. On one hand, there are a lot of "experts" saying that DRAM over supply should be easing. On the other hand, we have Samsung and others who are not operating at capacity, cranking out as much as the market needs. For my money, the semi eq sector is not as "cheap" as many of the beaten down sectors. I think I will wait to see if blood is really going to run in the streets. Ramsey

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (6604)	8/11/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: steve olivier	Respond to of 10921

Joseph, Well said. One might also want to look at the relative performance of the group. I think you will find that these stocks have not been getting hit as hard as the rest of the market lately. I think it would take a serious recession in the non- Asia economies to cause these stocks to go significantly lower. However, they may not go up for awhile. Writing out of the money puts during this saucer bottom may be a way to generate some short term gains.

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (6604)	8/12/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Joseph, you said >> I'm willing to begin betting that we are starting to move closer to beginning of the upcycle and further away from the bottom of the downcycle.<< I join you in the first part: "we are starting to move closer to beginning of the upcycle". In fact I am 100% certain this is so, no matter how far away the up cycle is. <g> I'm not sure about the second part:"we are starting to move...further away from the bottom of the downcycle." Have we seen the bottom? I'm 85% certain we have. GM