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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (13083)	8/11/1998 8:57:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Kahuna, There is only one way Vivus will be able to get the domestic script numbers up to par and that is with a strong domestic partner. I know it, you know it, Vivus knows it, we all know it. Evidently this is exactly what Vivus is working on as I type. J&J has a bigger sales force than Pfizer and I would expect script numbers to reach that old level within 3 to 4 months after they take over. As for Viagra, I know you do not want to hear it but IMO the liability issues will eventually force some type of change. I do not know if this means relabeling and restricted use or a total recall but I do know that the way things are headed, Pfizer is going to have to deal with the liability issues sooner or later. Finally, I do not depend on Vivus's success via Viagra failure. Viagra is the reason we now have a crushed stock price. There is no doubt that Viagra has drastically hurt MUSE script numbers. With an effective salesforce, I think MUSE will eventually see a coattail effect. I also believe the safety issues surounding Viagra will eventually restrict its use at least in the CDV patient which will dramatically improve MUSE script rates. So IMO a good sales force + MUSE safety profile = Vivus stock price recovery. It will take some time but it will happen.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (13083)	8/11/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Kahuna, I would appreciate your comments regarding the following: 1)Your opinion on the liability issues facing Pfizer as more reports are issued questioning the safety of Viagra. 2)Comment on last weeks script numbers on Viagra ie new scripts are off 65% from their peak only 3 months ago. Assuming that IMS numbers are 60% of actual and the average Viagra script lasts one month (probably more like 6 weeks), based on the last IMS numbers of 181,200 as a weekly average we are currently treating 181,200/.6 x 4 = 1,208,000 men with ED in the united states. Now assuming that a good chunk of these men do not really have ED but are using Viagra as an enhancer (lets guess 20% which I think is very conservative) then we have 966,400 men actually being treated for ED. Now remembering the analysts estimate of up to 30 million men with ED makes me think they are WAY off. Assuming only 10 million men have ED, then Viagra is only treating less than 10% of the ED pool. This tells me that there is still plenty of growth for both MUSE and Viagra. It is a big pie and on a world wide basis it is a giant pie. IMO, Vivus only need focus on that at risk or Viagra failure piece of pie and they will be able to thrive and be profitable.