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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jbn3 who wrote (57888)	8/12/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 176387

Hi 3,..Re:<<Consensus Earnings Estimates are projected to be $2.02 for the coming year (same source). Dividing that into yesterday's closing price gives a forward P/E of about 52.6.>> Thanks for all your good work in keeping us up to date on PE issues. As far as Dell vs Dow, I plotted it but apart from being up when the Dow is up and down when the Dow is down, couldn't find a strong linkage. The Dow is not a good comparison for tech stocks in my opinion as it is composed of 30 fairly mature companies, none of which displays the growth of many of the tech stocks. Furthermore, the Dow is a weighted average, so if for instance, DIS has a bad day, the whole average is biased according to the weighting. A much better index to follow for the large cap tech stocks would be the OEX but, of course, you already know that. bigcharts.com Best, Lee

To: jbn3 who wrote (57888)	8/12/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: William C. Spaulding	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

Hard facts about Dell's performance: ---------- 1st qtr. 98 ----- 1st qtr. 97 -- Growth Rate Revenue ----3920 ----------- 2588 --------- 51% Net Income - 305 ------------ 198 ---------- 54% EPS -------- .44 ------------- .27 ---------- 63% Dell's stock price 8/11/98 --- 106 1/4 8/11/97 --- 37 7/8 Revenues are 151% higher this year than last. Net income is 154% higher. EPS is 163% higher. Dell's stock price is 280% higher. Look folks, these are the facts. Any other discussion about how much business there is in the world, or how much money Dell is saving over the Internet, or how much building Dell is doing, etc. isn't going to change the basic facts. What those factors actually add up to is contained in the numbers that Dell publishes every quarter, and as you can see, the stock price has risen much faster than the fundamentals, so how much longer do you think this can continue. In my opinion, it has ended for now. 5 months from now, Dell will be in this price range. It will meander during these last 5 months of the year just like it did last year, especially in view of the pessimism that is permeating the market. Yes, there are stocks that have much higher p/e's, but most of these stocks either missed earnings (i.e., GTW. The smaller earnings inflates the p/e more than the lower stock price decreases it.) or they have a small float (i.e., Internet stocks). Neither of these factors apply in Dell's case. Please understand. I'm not trying to rain on your parade. I'm just trying to tell people the other side of the story. I would hate to see people lose a lot of money. If you're a long-term holder and you're not on margin, you have nothing to worry about. But, IMHO, recent Aug and Sept call buyers are going to be big losers. I am only trying to prevent a bloodbath. I hate to see roadkill and carnage on the road to riches! I know many here don't like what I'm saying, but I think I have presented hard core facts to support my view. But like I said so many times before, we'll just have to wait and see.