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To: Chas who wrote (37375)	8/12/1998 10:24:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Chas, Pretty much sounds like what we have been saying for the past couple of weeks now and the "forever bears" have refused to accept it. Not sure I agree with everything that is said there, but it certainly sounds more accurate then what the bears have been saying...and 45 seems a lot closer than the single digits they have been projecting.<g> Of course the bears will find some spin that they can use to show that their fundamentals have been right for the past couple of years and that is just the bulls blindly buying MU that screws up the stock price.<g> I hope the bears aren't following their own advice, otherwise it is gonna be a sparse Christmas.<g> DavidG

To: Chas who wrote (37375)	8/12/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

chas-- they are already setting it up for a fall. (.25) for q4. this is bad. they wont make that much. everyone is transitioning to 64Mb parts, including PC100. now, they ge t geometries down enough to get as many 64's and 16's. avg computer DRAM is not going to rise that much, so you get an environment where there are too many 64Mb parts floating around, even with production cutbacks. now, going forward, demand will increase as asia recovers. i think they are calling it too soon. my read, they are dumping shares now, and the fall comes aroudn earnings. at least thats how the game has been played in the past. loved the blurb about the koreans not being able to transition to DUV. if applied gets desperate enough they will write the financing<G>. additionally, the currency devals have given the asians a pretty good position. of course, this also assumes that MU will have enough money to transition their fabs. all in all, a much better report. i think they are right, and i know that prices are going up, but this is way to soon to break out the bolli. and its way too soon to up earnings forecasts that much. what happens if seimens links with samsung? and the japs arent as desperate as people may think. its just too soon. good luck to all, trey

To: Chas who wrote (37375)	8/12/1998 10:55:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Chas, that rules! You scooped Dow Jones, et. al. Joseph increases his FY'99 estimate from .17 to 1.25 (a mere +635% increase) and the best Dow Jones can do (so far) is to quote Dan Niles drawing the earth-shattering conclusion that yes, DRAM prices seem to have risen. So not only does Dow Jones run the comments of arguably the worst analyst on the stock over the last 12 months in terms of short-term ratings changes... ...it misses arguably the most important move in terms of research that occurred today. Thanks Dow Jones! Oh, and thanks CNBC as well. How many times did CNBC report on MU today? I missed "reporter" Bob Pisani coming up with this (I did however pick up on today's "Bob Pisani's TA lesson" - did anyone else realize that there's this thing called the 200-day moving average? How 'bout that!). I did hear him mention a few times that MU was up strong (just in case we all thought it was an optical illusion; or is it that Pisani impresses himself by the fact that he can tell whether or not a stock is up or down?), but I missed where he mentioned the Montgomery report. Even if I don't entirely agree with the report (and it's interesting to note that despite this so-called "bubble" Joseph sees coming, his FY'99 estimate is STILL below the number 1.99 - the number he moved up to at the Monty Conf in Jan.; come to think of it, back then, didn't Joseph pull the same sort of dramatic FY'99 increase to get to that 1.99 figure? The number was fairly conservative and then WHAM-OO! it suddenly pops up to 1.99?), IMHO it's pretty cool to see an individual investor doing his own research to come up with something the press missed. Good trading, Tom

To: Chas who wrote (37375)	8/12/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: phbolton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Re: Analysts, below is the 8/97 Zack's on MU (LOL) note that consensus rating is still about 2.3/4, note how wrong they were, as I recall montgomery was a strong buy back then MICRON TECH ( MU )Number of brokers recommending as: Strong Buy 5 Moderate Buy 1 Hold 8 Moderate Sell 0 Strong Sell 2 Average Recommendation (strong buy) 1.00 - 5.00 (strong sell) This Week 2.6 Last Week 2.4 Change -0.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Industry:ELEC COMP-SEMIC Ranked 64 of 75 Earnings Per Share Last Quarter (May 97) 0.45 Surprise 18% Consensus Estimates This Quarter (Aug 97) 0.52 This Year (Aug 97) 1.27 Next Year 2.95

To: Chas who wrote (37375)	8/13/1998 1:59:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>This is the third price uptick the industry has seen in the past three years, and while the other two failed, we believe this increase will stick:<< of course, they predicted the other two would fail miserably also. NOT! a monkey could repeat the same old mantra and be just as wrong and all you'd have to do is feed him a couple bananas. ;-)