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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ed who wrote (3621)	8/13/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: JRH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Why do you jump into the LU boat ? Did you buy LU because of its future potential of growth, its strong managing teams , and R&D capability (Bell Lab),...etc ? Do you think the high PE of LU , but back up with quarters after quarters of high growth , is a problem ? If you think High PE of LU is a problem, then why don't you buy those stocks of low PE but with very limited of future growth ? Hey, I'll give you a straight answer!! I jumped aboard in January after I noticed that LU had been trading sideways for so long. The intent of my purchase was to hedge a little against my huge (relatively speaking) CSCO holdings. After I bought, and after I researched more, and after I saw my holdings skyrocket, I was happy that I bought! To be honest, I think that LU might do better than CSCO in the upcoming convergence war (unfortunately for me), only because LU has many, many roadkill data players to pick from (ie Yuri, ASND, etc.) and CSCO will, IMO, have to research its Voice equipment for a while since there aren't any available small caps to be purchased that develop LU's product. But, hey, I think both will do great. But folks, don't expect this convergence thing to happen 'till near 2000. I think that CSCO's voice equipment will come out in that time frame sometime due to the fact that it all has to be done in house, but the fact that they are pouring so much money into it is accounted for. My theory on LU is that the price is cheap today compared to what it will be in two years. And since I am a long term holder, I don't fret too much over today's price. I'll ride the waves until my time comes.....All my opinions, of course.... JRH

To: ed who wrote (3621)	8/13/1998 6:19:00 AM
From: Ridi J	Respond to of 21876

Hi ed, My take on high P/Es is similar to yours. Only I consider it a measure of widespread investor confidence in future earnings growth potential, and the belief that the experts who predict growth rates are often wrong, that a stock would be bid up to a higher-than-growth-rate p/e. Of course for every buyer, there's a seller who equally convinced the stock will drop. I'm in LU because until the cost of delivering a "grain" of data is infinitely small, and the capacity to deliver it is infinitely large, this "railroad of the next century" will continue to grow. And LU's gonna lay a lot of that track.