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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CHIP HUNTER who wrote (12738)	8/13/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Hi guys, I've been out of the market for several weeks now but I'm looking to get back in. My feelings are in complete agreement with Jerry Favors (I posted the url a couple of days ago). Basically I believe we are due a fairly massive correction into October-Nov. However, like Jerry I have been waiting for the last rally when all the small cap crap stuff starts flying for the first time this year. That's normally how bull markets end with all the speculative crap rallying. Well it hasn't happened yet, so Jerry and I are on the outside looking in. At this point in the cycle I think it is now safe to start shorting/putting the well known large caps that are way overpriced. I'm mad because I wanted to get into amat but overslept and missed it. The stock is going down substantially and it will take all the other semi-equipments with it. I noticed some idiot analyst dropped their estimate of amat's earnings by some huge percentage (like 50% or so) and then repeated a buy on amat!!!! What kind of moronic sheep does he take us for???? I also think this could very well be the last gasp of the internut stocks for a while, with amzn and gcty being the most ridiculous of all. Years from now the history books will use gcty's ipo as an example of the late 90's tulip mania. I just wish I could short it right now because in 30 days I suspect it will be much much lower. Of course, you can short cmgi, though they own other stocks which aren't as absurd as gcty. Everything about this market technically looks horrendous. It may even be too weak to have its last gasp rally in which case I will just have to jump in and short this stuff anyway. Meanwhile the top tier stocks like msft dell csco etc really haven't gotten hit yet. That tells me that this collapse has got a lot more to go. We may get one last great entry for shorting when dell comes out next week with their guaranteed great earnings announcement. I'll probably wait for that and hope that we get at least one good rally out of that. I think the shorties are about to make a lot of money...