To: Typhoon who wrote (864 ) 8/14/1998 10:20:00 AM From: tero kuittinen Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
Hi typhoon, Ericsson is expected to come out with new models in the first half of -99, but the info is curiously vague. Why did Ericsson hype so much the new GSM/TDMA/AMPS worldphone which is due in the *fourth quarter* of -99? It's very rare that these companies pre-announce phones by 16 months... the fact that Ericsson didn't talk anything about new models in the first half of -99 while pumping up a product that hits the streets in the second half is strange. You would expect them to be more concrete about the early -99, especially since Motorola is already talking up a storm about their early -99 line-up. If Ericsson can't ship anything groundbreaking in the 1Q 99 they are in all sorts of trouble - thanks to Nokia, Ericy phone sales stalled already in 2Q 98 and four consecutive quarters without new models would be somewhat disastrous. If Ericsson ships new models in the first half, it will slow down Nokia's momentum, but hardly as badly as Nokia is now hitting Motorola and Ericsson. The 6150, 8810 and 9110 models will be just half a year old next January, after all. Nokia is not walking into that "aging models" trap anymore - they got scarily close to the edge at the end of -97 and have speeded up their cycle after that. Moreover, Nokia is launching new, more affordable models patterned after the ecxclusive 8810 next year so they aren't planning to coast along with their current momentum. The technological innovations in 6100 and 5100 series should be bold enough to stand out even next year. Can Ericsson or Motorola really launch cheap models with one week stand-by times and five-line displays even in 1999? Certainly nothing Motorola has unveiled so far implies that. Ericsson's chronic problems with display technology haven't gone anywhere - and now consumers are really demanding big, good displays to read e-mail and text messages. 3g is still one of life's central mysteries, right up with the question about extraterrestrial life and God's existence. If W-CDMA pans out, Nokia is world's leading expert... after Ericsson, I'm afraid. If it doesn't, all bets are off. Tero