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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (5549)	8/14/1998 4:06:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Paul, In the midwest, farmers have a saying, "If it rains in Chicago, the price of wheat in Kansas goes up." You have broached the conflict between 'investors' and 'speculators'. As an investor, I don't care for the market manipulations of the speculators that create artificial prices. It's impressive that your analysis concludes the hedgefund/speculators are so much wiser than the market investors and doing them a favor. That the attacks, and that's what they are, on the various markets and companies are actually good for the investors because it let's them know that their stocks are over/under priced. Of course, this implies that they are unable to do research, have knowledge, and make analysis of the particular company. If the 'attacks' cause the desired market movement, the speculators will say "See, we told you so" as they cover their shorts and reap the profits -if they were successful in creating enough investor panic selling. You say, "The Soros' and Robertsons of the world, as wells as us armchair participants are doing the Japanese a favor by shorting yen, as it benefits exporters, and JPN is primarily an exporting country." What audacity!! If this is so, then why are so many Japanese exporters going bankrupt? I do agree that the speculators drove the value of the yen down - and compounded this entire mess. As to your reference to HCBC, I see their potential for weaker profits, a result of the weaker yen, a result of the speculators attacks on the yen, but I also see a price drop that is not in proportion to the projected profit- a price fall off due to short selling and the ensuing panic it caused. I would not invest in Japan now because, unless they do something quickly, their economy will be in total collapse, the economy you claim the speculators have helped so much. I have been and continue to INVEST in HK/China companies and am very comfortable with my investments. The recent Hang Seng selloff has only caused a minor fall in my investments, a fall that I should soon recover. Even the speculators cannot offset the value of a well managed company no matter how hard they try. They've made runs on the currency and now runs on the market. Neither has been successful in breaking the peg. How many more tries before the speculators give up? How much more chaos will the markets be forced to endure? In my perfect world, market speculators don't exist. FWIW, Ron