To: SJS who wrote (1805 ) 8/15/1998 3:07:00 PM From: Lucretius Read Replies (3) | Respond to
Steve, those stocks listed on the short list are tech and have awful fundamentals. Mark my words, these will be the last stocks to go. I still think DELL, CSCO, MSFT, AMZN, YHOO, etc will hit new highs when the broader mkt eventually has its last major rally before we begin the crash down to DOW 4500. Since, I believe we are in a mania, the these mania-driven stocks will be the last to die. Stay away from the mania-driven stocks right now I think and stick to buying puts on banks, credit card co's, airlines, large high multiple mulitnationals, and other highly GDP sensitive stocks. We are headed for the worst 3 years in US stock mkt history. You're going to laugh, but I see the DOW below 1000 in 3 years (w/ large bear rallies along the way of course). It is all coming down, but these GDP sensitive stocks are likely to get trashed the worst and first. Tech will eventually come down more than anything, but it may take more time (I bought LOTS of time on my Tech puts). Be assured, there should be a rally starting next week. That will be the LAST rally before things get UGLY. You should be loading the boat w/ puts during that rally no matter how strong it looks on the surface or how many journalists say that the bull is back (be assured it will look VERY strong, but it won't last). here is a list of my puts that I bought and added to back on 7/24/98:
