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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (27771)	8/14/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Question to all on this thread: Other then being associated with oil, what do BJS,DO,EVI,FGII,FLC,GIFI,HMAR,NE,RIG,RON,SII,SLB,TCMS, and VRC have in common? ......answer in the next post.

To: Snowshoe who wrote (27771)	8/14/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: papi riqui	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I haven't posted since the meltdown was in full swing a while back, but I regularly peek in on the thread to gauge sentiment and get a few yucks. Couldn't resist observing that the unabating rosy scenario optimism of some in the face of continuing carnageis simply breathtaking. Reminds me of the story about famed Texas trial lawyer Racehorse Haynes whosetenacitywas likened to that of a little critter sitting on the railroad track so determined not to give ground that he lunged forward with teeth bared as the locomotive roared over him. A commonly accepted definition of a bear market is a pullback of 20% or more from previous highs. Well, guess what? The average stockin this sector is down 50% or more and many are60-70% off their highs. By any definition, this sector has been in a raging bear market for nearly a year. Fond memories of the meteoric price rise since 1996, when most stocks went from single digits to the stratosphere, should notlull us into the belief that these stocks are now "must buy'em at these level steals". After all, Newton's law holds only that what goes up must come down - there is no opposite corollary. Solet's face it, this sector ran up to the sky for one simple reason: It was the darling of the momentum set when the market was in its buy-at-any-cost phase. Now that we're in a sell-at-any-price mode, momentum is back with a vengeance, only this time the sellers are behind the wheel. Are we at the bottom today? Maybe, but who knows. All we really know is that yesterday certainly was not the bottom. That we can only guess when the bottom will occur, and we will not know for sure until after the fact, makes trying to time it the biggest waste of time this thread has engaged in these past many months. Why indulge in this silliness, why even try to anticipate (guess) when a bottom will occur when it is impossible to make this determination in advance? I have followed this sector since January but have yet to take a position in any stock. Yes, I missed some good opportunities in the March bear rally because I was too chicken and too late. But how many now wish that you, too, were break-even and holding a big chunk of cash to buy when the real bottom finally materializes? I'm not bragging about my good fortune because I'm not smart enough to have figured anything out by myself. I've stayed out of this sector only because the P&F thread that some like to disparage has kept me out since they called the downturn back in April. I will get in after the sector finally bottoms, but more importantly, only if and when it reverses back up. I will miss the first few points off the bottom, but who cares! If you really think this sector is heavily oversold, grossly undervalued and has fantastic fundamentals, there will be plenty of upside to reap so why even try to call the bottom before you are absolutely sure about it. I would remind those who have forgotten that: GlM hit hi 50s in 1980 but has not risen above low 30s since (below 8 from 83-95); SII hitlow 70s in 1980 and only returned there in 97 (below 10 from 85-95); ESV hit 50 in 1980 and is not back there yet (below 10 for most of 82-95); HAL hit 42 in 1982 and only returned there in 97 (in teens from 82-95); and even SLB hit high 30s in 1980 but did not return thereuntil 1996. If you look at the charts you'll see that all of these stocks ran up in the late 70s much like they did recently, but were dead money for the next 15 years. The price of crude fluctuated during this period and was in a downtrend for a good portion, but I don't believe the price ever was as low as it is now, certainly not in real terms at least. I would be unwilling to bet good money today that history will not repeat itself. It's all about supply and demand: Don't focus on OPEC trying to reduce supply, it's the lack of DEMAND for oil stupid! If this persists, earnings momentum for this sector will remain negative and the supply of these stocks will continue to exceed the demand for them. I have no axe to grind about the direction of this sector either long or short. To paraphrasea noted gambler from another era, frankly, my dear, I don't give a damnwhether or not today is the final botom. I just want to be ready (and able) when the time comes and it is pure folly to try to guess (with real money) when that will be. So, toyou eternal optimists who choose to throw good money after bad, I say good luck, but what's the big hurry. There will be plenty of time to make good money in this sector again. Just sit back, be patient and let the market tell you when it has run its course. Don't try to guess when that will happen - it's a fools game. I don't know when this will happen, but here's my prediction: This sector will have hit bottom when the number of daily posts on this thread falls to the low teens on a regular basis.