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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5333)	8/15/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Respond to of 18928

Tom, There are 5 stocks tracked in the AIM portfolio. FGII EVI VRC RIG RON AIM -45.4% -44.4% -32.0% -26.3% -43.3% Norm -48.9% -48.0% -36.8% -30.6% -47.1% The "norm" is assuming that the entire $20000 was spent at the initial point in time. The AIM portfolio assumed $15000 initially invested and $5000 (25%) held as a cash reserve. As you can see, AIM did give me a slightly lower cost basis, but since the majority of the collapse in the sector came after AIM ran out of money, the improvement is marginal. Here is how much they declined this week using the original purchase price as a basis. FGII EVI VRC RIG RON -19% -18% -10% -9% -7% Chances are you've participated in the biggest part of the decline Mathematically you might be correct, but psychologically, the group has yet to see capitulation. I expected that at 20% higher levels and I had purposefully set those cash level low thinking the worst of the drop had already concluded in June and July would only be a minor falloff in search of a base. Knowing what the downside is like, what will your maximum Cash Reserve be in the next rally? I expect I'll have lots of time to think about that. ;-) Some of these stocks have to almost double to get to their first sell point. Unlikely to happen before cold weather sets in. ---- Dave