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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (1498)	8/15/1998 5:55:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2578

I don't think DELL will get as low as 98. I see it pulling back to 103 or so and then moving up to a new high around 128. There is a VERY REAL alternate possibility that something in its earnings tio be reported on Mon after the bell doesn't float like its previous loads of crap that it has reported, and this POS just gets flushed from here. That's why I am buying puts now, I WILL NOT miss out on the biggest bomb of all time in this bear of all bear mkts that should last for several years. DELL will visit 40 before Jan 31, IMO, and much lower after that. I am buying Jan 2000 75's, 65's, 50's, (depending on the premium and what is selling a momentary discount to the implied volatility price) I've also bought some Jan '99 puts as well. Doesn't matter which ones you buy, they'll all go up. DELL should see 10 to 15 by Jan 2000 and single digits after that. Write it down. -Lucretius

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (1498)	8/15/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2578

Hate to rain on your bear parade, but..... From the latest Business Week: (See especially paragraph 2) The largest stock in Shoelzel's fund is Dell Computer (DELL), which has been a fair-weather barometer for the market in the 1990s. In the last eight years, Dell's stock price has leaped by a factor of 433 times. And Shoelzel sees no reason for it to stop. "Demand for personal computers has increased every year for the last 10 years by about 15%, and that's not changing," he says. Dell, Schoelzel says, recently approached its 50 largest corporate customers and found out that most of them plan TO INCREASE COMPUTER PURCHASES SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT YEAR, partially because the last big corporate binge was in 1996 (in the wake of the release of Windows 95) and now most of that hardware has been fully depreciated. In addition, many companies are planning significant upgrades as a way of heading off Year 2000 problems. Dell is currently the largest U.S. supplier of computers to corporations and is also quickly gaining market share in the consumer market. IMO, combine this, and the unquestionable strong sales growth to occur in Europe in the coming years (due to Y2k, the Eurodollar, and undercomputerization), as well as strong sales growth in Japan and China (by far, the 2 biggest computer markets in Asia).....and any concerns about the rest of Asia are mute.... You guys are playing with fire...